A man reads one of annual luck-prediction books by Feng Shui masters. Edmond Tang

In a chandelier-lit ballroom of Island Shangri-La Hong Kong, coffee and dessert are being served to VIP clients attending a luncheon hosted by ABN Amro Private Banking. After an equity specialist comments on the market trends, the master of ceremony introduces the last speaker: "Now, Master Yeung will share with us tips on how to boost our luck in the Year of the Rat!"

Tall and dashing in a Chinese-style black jacket, Feng Shui practitioner Alione Yeung starts to deliver predictions about the coming year: the US economy won't improve until the 11th month of the Chinese lunar calendar (Nov 28 to Dec 26), and Chinese GDP growth will slow down - according to his hexagram, or ba gua, oracles. Additionally, in consideration of the Five Elements being balanced, the transport and communication sectors are going to do well. Also, people who were born in the summer will enjoy good luck and those born in winter better be careful, based on Chinese astrology.

Before concluding his presentation, he gets slightly more specific: "HSBC. Just don't touch it this year".

He believes Hong Kong's biggest bank is going to suffer an even bigger blow than the credit crunch in the US: the dismantling of the Star Ferry Central Pier. The reason being because the pier is located north of the HSBC headquarter building, and north is an unfavorable direction in the Year of the Rat. Construction in this direction, Yeung said, is terribly destructive Feng Shui-wise.

The result, he warned, will be a string of bad luck for HSBC this year.

The master of ceremony quickly added, in a light-heartedly serious way, that Yeung's opinions don't represent those of ABN Amro.

Still, Yeung was resolute in his predictions.

"The accuracy rate of my oracles is over 90 percent," he told reporters after the luncheon, adding that if there's a conflict between fundamental analysis and his oracles when he trades stocks, "I trust my oracles".

But to be fair, some senior analysts, such as Albert Cheng of Quam (IA) Ltd, have said that while the US subprime crisis may hurt HSBC, the impact won't be as bad as some US banks may see.

And Cheng said the valuation of HSBC is attractive, as its price-to-earning ratio has dropped to about 11 to 12 times, which means the share has great potential to grow in the long term.

Tips wanted

In Hong Kong, Feng Shui masters are not just consulted for furniture arrangements. Feng Shui's principles are rooted in I-Ching, also known as the Book of Changes, which was used in ancient times for divination and had a deep influence on philosophers such as Confucius. For Feng Shui practitioners, the many forms of prediction developed from I-Ching are part of the job.

These days, one doesn't need hexagrams to tell that stocks are on people's minds.

The Feng Shui masters in Hong Kong all have devoted significant portions of their annual prediction books to investing.

The cover of Alione Yeung's book depicts him standing in front of a Hang Seng Index (HSI) chart. Mak Ling Ling, who made a name for herself by giving love and relationship advice to women, emphasizes the importance of women being money savvy. And Ma Kwan-ching, who has published more than 40 investment books under another pen name, released two prediction books this year - one on general luck and the other having to do solely with investments.

"This is a reflection of market sentiment," said Hong Kong University Assistant Professor Liu Qiao, who specializes in behavioral finance. After a booming 2007, he said, "the investors have a lot of enthusiasm for the stock market".

Money spinners

Amid a good economy or not, the annual luck-prediction books have always been a reliable profit generator for publishers. According to numbers from the Hong Kong Book and Magazine Trade Association, their sales grow by a double-digit rate every year.

The Feng Shui masters, however, say that the book revenues provide only a small addition to their incomes. The books help with their name recognition, but the real money is in the consulting services they offer.

Alione Yeung disclosed in a November interview with Hong Kong Economic Daily that he had 10 speaking engagements in 2007. He charged HK$15,000 if the job was in Hong Kong and HK$30,000 to HK$40,000 if travel was required. "I am thinking about doubling the fee," he said, "because there's more and more business."

Chinese New Year is the peak season for Feng Shui consulting, when Yeung purports to rake in HK$400,000 a month. Even in the slow season such as May and June, he said his income can reach about HK$200,000.

And Yeung's fee is modest compared with Mak Ling Ling's. She tells fortunes for HK$3,800 each and advises on Feng Shui for more than HK$10,000 per consultation. Her annual income nears HK$10 million, she told Hong Kong Economic Daily.

How accurate?

There's no doubt that the Feng Shui masters are popular, but is their advice reliable?

Obviously, they have hits and they have misses. Even the top-tier soothsayers are not spared from occasional embarrassment.

Reputed Master Peter So Man-fung said in a prediction book last year that the property market would pick up and the stock market would slump in autumn. As it turned out, the property prices did go up, but the HSI flourished, too.

Then there's Mak Ling Ling, who announced in early 2006 that actor Nicholas Tse would break up with his girlfriend Cecilia Cheung within the year. That was way off, as they ended up marrying and having a son together.

Alione Yeung even learned a lesson from one of his miscalculations. He had been so bold as to predict in his blog whether the HSI would go up or down on a certain day. This stopped after he foresaw a tumble on October 29 but the benchmark actually surged by several hundred points.

Still, they all enjoy a loyal following. That may be due, in part, to their successful predictions being highlighted in Feng Shui masters' columns or on television, while their mistakes are quietly forgotten.

The correct predictions could be no more than common sense and lucky guesses, said Chan Tin-Cheung, an assistant professor of psychology in the Department of Psychology at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "They predict on so many things; some of them are bound to come true," he pointed out.

Chan proposed the implementation of a government committee to regulate the profession and require Feng Shui consultants to keep a record of their predictions. And perhaps, Chan said, if a quarter of the predictions are incorrect, the consultants would lose their licenses.

But the psychologist admitted this could be difficult to implement. The predictions, he said, "are difficult to falsify, because they use vague terms".

But until a practical way to examine oracles is figured out, Feng Shui masters will undoubtedly continue to be adored.

Wong Man-fai, who has spent HK$48 on a book by Master So, was not bothered by some erroneous forecasts by the occult investment advisors.

"They are not gods," Wong said. "You can't expect them to be right all the time. Those analysts are often wrong.

"But when it comes to stock markets, everybody guesses."

I-Ching and ba gua, or hexagrams, are said to be developed from He Tu and Luo Shu, two diagrams delivered by mythical creatures to Chinese legendery rulers Fu Xi and Da Yu.

(HK Edition 02/04/2008 page2)