Europe's population will continue to decline for decades even if birthrates improve significantly, researchers have calculated. Trends towards smaller families and later motherhood mean that there are too few women of childbearing age to reverse the decline in the near future, according to an Austrian study. At present 1.5 babies are born for every European Union woman, when two births are required for the population "replacement rate" to be maintained. Even if women started to have more children again, the tendency to population decline would continue for decades, as there will be fewer parents in the next generation than in this one. The findings come from a study by Wolfgang Lutz, of the Austrian Academy of Science in Vienna, and Brian O'Neill, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. The authors said that the changing role of women was a significant factor in the projected population decline. Many were putting off having their first child to concentrate on their education or career. (Agencies) | 据研究人员统计，接下来的几十年，欧洲人口将持续减少。即便出生率显著提高也无法改变这一状况。 据一份来自奥地利的调查表明，家庭规模的减小和妇女生育年龄增大的趋势导致育龄妇女越来越少，从而无法改变近几年欧洲人口下降的局面。 目前欧盟国家的妇女平均生1.5个孩子，而为了保持人口替代率，每个妇女至少要生2个孩子。即便从现在开始妇女增加生育数量，人口减少的趋势仍将持续几十年，因为我们的下一代中愿意成为父母的人越来越少。 这一结论是由来自位于维也纳的奥地利科学院的沃尔夫冈·卢茨和奥地利拉克森堡的国际应用系统分析研究所的布赖恩·奥尼尔调查得出的。 研究者说人口下降的主要原因是妇女在社会中扮演的角色发生了变化。许多妇女为了工作或教育而推迟生育。 （中国日报网站译） |
Updated: 2003-04-02 01:00
