The China-US-Japan triangle
Peter H.  Updated: 2004-11-27 11:28

China has been trying to woo Japan away from the US alliance. But it is not working. In fact it is not going to work no matter how hard China tries.

There are underlying reasons why this strategy will not bear fruit for China.

A triangle relation among three actors is the structurally most unstable relationship. This is because any two actors could gang up against the third actor. Therefore, there are possible configurations in the China-US-Japan triangle relation:

Config 1: The US and Japan vs. China

Config 2: China and Japan vs. The US

Config 3: China and the US vs. Japan

The current trianglar relation is in configuration 1. The US is allied with Japan to contain the rise of China.

The US as the current sole superpower obviously has motivation to contain any rising power. Since China is a rising power, the US seeks to contain China in various ways. The US-Japan alliance is one of such instruements.

Japan then has to choose sides: either the US or China. Japan has many reasons to choose the US over China.

First, Japan attacked the US in Word War II but was defeated and totally devastated in the end. Remember the drop of two atomic bombs. The seed of fear is sowed and will not disappear easily.

Second, the US helped to rebuild Japan after World War II, although for geopolitical reason. Most Japanese are grateful of Americans' generosity.

Third, Japan is economically dependent on the US. The US controls the world oil supplies which Japan heavily relies on. Japanese economy is export-oriented and the US is among its biggest export destination countries.

Fourth, Japan has an unnatural (or genetic, maybe) fear of China. Although it is unnatural, it is a factor of life that will impede any Chinese attempt to woo Japan.

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