China's civil aviation fleet is expected to more than triple its size in two decades from 586 planes in 2002, as demands on air travel will continue to grow, a leading industrial research institute said Monday.

The country is projected to add 1,901 airliners between 2003 and 2022, when passenger air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), will post an annual increase of 8.3 per cent, the Aviation Industry Development Research Centre of China said.

RPKs are a result of multiplying the number of fare-paying passengers by the distance in kilometres flown by them.

In 20 years, China's RPKs will rocket from 126.87 billion in 2002 to 627.7 billion, the research centre said in its annual aviation market forecast.

"The predicted robust growth momentum is supported by the country's rapid development in national economy, foreign trade and tourism, plus the deepening reform in the aviation industry," said Wang Boxue, a senior researcher with the centre.

In the years leading up to 2022, China is expected to attain an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7 per cent, the centre's forecast report quoted predictions of some authoritative agencies.

Such a growth trend will provide a solid footing for the air transport industry to fly higher, Wang said.

The researcher said that as China opens wider to the outside world, the country will increasingly become a magnet for foreign business people, meaning its international air passenger and cargo transport market will further grow.

"As it turned out, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) had just a very limited and temporary impact on China's economy," he said. "The long term and overall development prospects are very favourable for the civil aviation sector."

For one thing, the people's improving living standards have made air travel increasingly affordable, in addition to being convenient and time-saving, he said.

Furthermore, a thriving tourism industry in China also will contribute to rising air traffic volume, he said.

The World Tourism Organization predicted that by 2020, China will become the most visited destination in the world, and China forecast its tourism will grow by up to 11 per cent yearly between now and 2010, according to the report from Wang's centre.

All the factors, plus the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, mean that the country will have to dramatically expand its air transport capacity, the report said.

"To satisfy the RPK growth, China's civil aviation industry is expected to provide 871.8 billion available seat kilometres (ASKs) in 20 years from 198.1 billion in 2002," the report said.

ASK is the result of multiplying the number of passenger seats available in the aircraft by the distance flown in kilometres.

To reach the ASK growth demands, the number of passenger planes in Chinese mainland will have to reach 2,050 by the end of 2022 - including 1,403 large jet liners with more than 100 seats, and 647 regional airliners, it said.

"During the next 20 years, 437 planes will be taken out of service. Their replacements will account for 23 per cent of the total additional aircraft," Wang said.

In other words, 77 per cent of the added 1,901 planes will be used to meet the rising air travel demands during the 20 years.

As to regional planes, the aviation market forecast report said that with the optimization of the country's air routes and fleet structure, the country's airlines will favour planes with 50 to 70 seats.

"In a time frame of 20 years, regional airliners will account for one-third of China's civil aviation fleet," the report said.

The report did not say what the source of the new planes will be. Were they all imported, the procurement cost could surpass US$120 billion, according to Liu Gaozuo, president of China Aviation Industry Corp I.

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