Opinion
Progressing with challenges ahead
By Peter Shawn (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-08-18 19:45
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Now, China's statistics is a hot topic and has aroused the interest and criticism from the general public. I would like to share with you my thought about it.
The criticism is mainly focused on two aspects: one is the inconsistency among some indicators and the other is the difference between the data released and the feelings of the public. For instance, the robust economic expansion does not coincide with the lower growth of energy consumption and transportation turnover. And the critics therefore suspect the credibility of China's statistics.
With regard to the first aspect, inconsistency does exist in some cases due to the features of China's current economic development
There are many new and rapid changes taking place in China, never seen in any period of development history of any other countries: A large country with a population of over 1.3 billion, over 200 million population moving around, many projects initiated and completed everyday in many locations, and new industries emerging everyday due to the rapid progress of science and technology.
In the past two years, China was at the end of the third economic cycle and the beginning of the fourth cycle. Influenced by the global financial crisis, the Chinese economy once experienced rapid decline and, because of a series of stimulus policies, it was back to the growth track shortly.
The economic slowdown of the heavy-industry-oriented country definitely cause an even more rapid downward movement of the high energy-consuming industries. However, in the economic recovery period, the high energy-consuming industries will take the lead in economic growth, greater than the entire economy.
The above-mentioned factors altogether have been reflected in the statistical data: the marked fluctuation of the data and special changes in some coefficients did prove the credibility of China's statistics. This kind of criticisms on China's statistics, however, doesn't hold water.
As for the second aspect, further analyses should be made on the differences between people's feelings and the data released.
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There are 1.3 billion people in China living in different areas with different background of education. The income disparity is large and their material and spiritual needs are quite different. Therefore, it is only natural for them to different feelings about the same indicator. For instance, the price for 100 square meters apartment in Beijing or Shanghai is many times higher than that in remote provinces. Though the growth rates are the same, the price difference is huge. The inexpensive goods for the high income group might be the luxury or even unreachable goods for the low income group.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics are closely related to people's livelihood. The data are collected according to the internationally accepted standards, methodologies and procedures with great inputs of human and financial resources. Those data are not only scientific and reliable, but also highly integrated. It is unrealistic to have the illusion that one single indicator can work for all the people in different areas, from different income groups and with different education background. It is certainly not a rational way to do it. It is also not serious to judge statistics based on personal feelings only.
Statistical data are of vital importance to the national image, and everyone should make a stand for its dignity. Honestly speaking, there are flaws in China's statistics which need to be perfected. As we know that the National Bureau of Statistics is trying its best to improve its work, and the public's interest and wide participation will be conducive to its improvement.
Peter Shawn is a researcher on China's economy.