Gulf security set for rethink

Following the recent cancellations of high-profile events in the Gulf and deadly attacks on airports and other critical civilian infrastructure, it is becoming increasingly clear for the countries in the region to assume greater responsibility for their own security and no longer be reliant on the United States alone, analysts said.

The 10th edition of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative — often touted as “Davos in the Desert” — became one of the latest events postponed to 2027, as announced on Oct 19.

The Gulf economic powerhouse’s flagship event was delayed amid widening, overlapping conflicts that have disrupted land, sea, and air travel, business operations, and planning, while increasing security risks.

In the broader Middle East region, Lebanon and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank continue to face Israeli military attacks despite having ceasefires in place and the US-led Board of Peace.

This month, Yemen has returned to full-scale war as the Saudi-led coalition tries to recover areas controlled by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Gulf countries have tried to preserve a sense of normalcy, despite occasional US-Iran flare-ups as both sides wrestle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, and mediators work to restore the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed in June, that has largely fallen off the radar.

The fatal attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that killed at least 12 people and forced Saudi Arabia to suspend its operations earlier in October, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes hitting sensitive US military assets in the Gulf and wider Middle East region, including Jordan and Syria, have not just exposed the limits of Washington’s security partnership, but fueled the need to diversify such partnerships.

“The ongoing conflict in the Gulf region has exposed a heightening contradiction in American foreign policy,” said Farhan Chak, sessional lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Alberta in Canada.

“Washington continues to present itself as the region’s principal security guarantor, yet its reluctance to directly defend Saudi Arabia against (Yemen’s) Houthi militia attacks has raised doubts about US reliability.”

He said that for decades, US influence in the Gulf has depended not simply on military superiority, but on the credibility of its security guarantees.

“When Washington promises protection but hesitates to act, that credibility is weakened. The United States may benefit from avoiding direct military involvement. But it risks losing diplomatic leverage, regional confidence, and some of its ability to shape the Middle East’s security architecture.”

The emergence of alternative security arrangements, including the Mecca pact involving Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan, alongside Egypt’s willingness to assist Riyadh, reflects this changing reality, Chak said.

“Gulf states are increasingly recognizing the dangers of relying too heavily on a single external power. This does not mean abandoning Washington, but rather pursuing strategic autonomy by diversifying security partnerships and strengthening regional cooperation.”

Riyadh, Islamabad, and Ankara signed a defense pact in August. By Oct 5, the trio activated it after their emergency meeting when the Saudi-led military coalition announced its participation in the new Yemen government offensive targeting the Iran-backed Houthis.

This came after the Yemeni military said on Oct 4 that it had launched strikes against Houthi targets after the country’s internationally-recognized government declared a new campaign to retake all territory.

US President Donald Trump had said he would “make a decision” on joining the strikes against the Houthis as fighting intensified between the Saudi-backed Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen and the Houthis.

However, Trump had also promised there would be no strikes against Iran before the Nov 3 US midterm elections.

Abdolreza Alami, a senior lecturer at the Faculty of Communication and Media Studies at Universiti Teknologi MARA, or UiTM, in Malaysia, said that US-Israeli “aggression” against Iran has shown the limitations of military domination.

Confronted with attacks on its sovereignty, he said Iran had little choice but to resist, employing its strategic and deterrent capabilities to demonstrate that aggression carries substantial costs.

Alami said the conflict has also exposed the vulnerability of Gulf Arab states. By hosting US military bases and relying heavily on Washington’s security guarantees, he said, they have become entangled in a confrontation they cannot control.

“They are increasingly discovering that America’s overriding regional priority remains Israel, not necessarily their own security,” he added.

“Although several Gulf countries have initiated diplomatic engagement with Tehran, they have not fundamentally reconsidered an American-centered security architecture that historically marginalized Iran,” Alami said.

“I believe lasting regional stability requires recognizing Iran as an indispensable security actor rather than attempting to isolate it.”

Yemen meanwhile has been mired in conflict since late 2014, when the Houthis seized the capital Sanaa and much of the country’s north. A Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year in support of the government.

Yemen’s Foreign Minister Afrah al-Zouba said the government had abandoned “the illusion of peace” that had allowed the Houthis “to regroup, rearm, and reattack the foundations of our state” and that any ceasefire or political process must now come “with the needed conditions to make it real”.

Abdulghani Al-Iryani, who previously worked with the United Nations in the Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen and with the UN Development Programme’s mission in Hodeida, said Iranian support made Houthis “an effective fighting force and that the Yemeni government could not replicate that”.

He also said division within the Yemeni government and divergence between Saudi and Emirati interests prevented that.

“So, despite the investment in government forces, Houthi military superiority increased during previous lulls in the fighting, leading to the recent Houthi territorial gains,” said Al-Iryani, now a senior researcher at the Sana’a Center in Aden, Yemen.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had earlier offered to facilitate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi group. However, Reuters reported on Oct 20 that Tehran has not received a response from either side.

Al-Iryani said the Yemeni Foreign Minister “was correct to rule out any peace negotiations” until the imbalance of power between the two sides is redressed to the extent that Houthis realize that they cannot achieve their objectives by force.

“Only then would peace be possible. That redress requires a change of the Saudi way of dealing with their Yemeni allies. Their previous domineering approach and micromanagement produced what may be termed ‘the Tragedy of Adverse Selection’,” he said.

Al-Iryani said compliant and corrupt commanders must be replaced by strong Yemeni command with agency and integrity.

“If that doesn’t happen, war merchants will keep the war going until the total disintegration of the Yemeni state. Iranian aggression on the Gulf states has brought UAE and Saudi Arabia back together. It is a matter of national security for both,” he added.

Some US media outlets had reported that Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman had sought Trump’s help to strike the Houthis, but Trump reportedly rejected the request.

Chak, from the University of Alberta, said the deeper problem is that US and Gulf interests “do not necessarily align”.

Washington views Tehran primarily through the prism of its broader strategic confrontation, while Gulf governments must live with the immediate consequences of regional instability, he said.

“Military actions intended to weaken Iran actually weaken America’s own regional partners — thereby weakening US power and reach. This is precisely the security dilemma confronting the Middle East. Efforts by one actor to enhance its security can provoke responses that make everyone less secure.”

Ultimately, Chak said, the Middle East is not necessarily witnessing the end of US influence, but rather the gradual erosion of unquestioned US security leadership.

“Gulf states are beginning to recognize that their security cannot depend exclusively on Washington’s willingness to intervene.”

Different approaches

Arhama Siddiqa, a research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, or ISSI, in Pakistan, said that the United Arab Emirates has adopted a somewhat different approach, maintaining cooperation with Israel while pursuing its own regional security interests, including in Yemen.

Qatar and Oman, she noted, have consistently emphasized dialogue and mediation.

“These differences underline that Gulf states are not a monolithic bloc, although concerns over regional instability and the reliability of external security guarantees are increasingly shared,” Siddiqa said.

Recently, reports said the UAE had rejoined Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis. The UAE withdrew its counter-terrorism teams in Yemen at the end of last year.

“I think we are witnessing a fundamental transformation of the Middle East’s security architecture,” said Siddiqa. She noted that this process began well before the Saudi coalition’s latest escalation against the Houthis.

Siddiqa said ever since the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025, and particularly Israel’s subsequent attack on Hamas negotiators in Doha that September, Gulf countries have been compelled to reassess their security arrangements fundamentally.

She said the subsequent US-Israeli war with Iran further exposed the vulnerabilities of the existing security architecture.

“The central lesson is that dependence on external security guarantees does not necessarily ensure security. The United States is certainly not abandoning the Middle East, given its substantial military and economic interests, but it is recalibrating its engagement,” Siddiqa said.

She also noted that Trump’s reluctance to intervene directly in the latest Saudi-Houthi escalation reflects this changing approach.

Consequently, Siddiqa said, Gulf countries are increasingly recognizing the need to assume greater responsibility for their own security.

“Israel’s blatant violation of Qatar’s sovereignty was particularly alarming, not least because Qatar was actively facilitating ceasefire negotiations,” she said.

“It demonstrated that even countries maintaining close strategic relations with Washington were not necessarily insulated from Israeli military aggression.

“Israel’s increasingly aggressive military posture, its disregard for the sovereignty of regional states, and its continued actions against the Palestinian people have emerged as serious obstacles to regional peace and stability.”

On Oct 18, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled Israel’s new security doctrine that advocated for preemptive strikes and buffer zones along Israel’s borders.

Opposition leaders criticized the move, calling it a collection of empty slogans to cover the Netanyahu government’s security failures.

Alami, from UiTM, noted that the current Middle East crisis reflects “not a successful Israeli redrawing of the region” but the dangerous consequences of Israel’s aggressive and expansionist policies — sustained by Western support.

Siddiqa, from ISSI, said Israel’s military actions have fundamentally undermined the notion that Israeli military superiority can serve as the foundation of a new regional security order.

She said Tel Aviv’s attack on Qatar, military operations across neighboring states, and continuing violations of Palestinian rights have demonstrated the dangers of allowing military power to operate without accountability.

“Equally, the Gulf countries recognize that Iran is an enduring geographical and political reality. While legitimate concerns exist regarding Iran’s military capabilities and its relations with armed non-state actors, excluding Tehran from regional security discussions would only perpetuate instability,” Siddiqa said.

“Ultimately, Israel cannot impose regional security through military aggression, America cannot guarantee it through domination, and Gulf stability cannot be achieved without Iran,” said Alami, from UiTM.

jan@chinadailyapac.com