A soybean harvest beyond control

The John Deere 9770 combine gave off a deep, rhythmic hum as dust lifted around the 35-foot draper head. Chris Eck parked the machine on the gravel lot in front of a soybean field, then climbed down from the cabin.

It was late morning on Aug 8 in Boggstown, Indiana. The combine would begin moving through the field in mid- or late September to harvest the soybeans, Eck told me over the lingering engine noise.

Eck, 51, is a third-generation farmer who grows soybeans, seed corn and wheat. When we spoke about what worried him, he used the language I had already been hearing for two days: beyond control.

I first heard the term in Chicago, where the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC) held its annual Soy Connext conference on Aug 6 and 7. During one session, the moderator asked several soybean industry leaders, all farmers themselves, what concerned them most.

"The things we can't control, the markets, the weather, all of that just kind of piles up, policy uncertainty," said Randy Miller, a director on the USSEC Board of Directors.

"Definitely the unknowns," said Brent Gatton, chairman of the United Soybean Board.

I kept hearing the same language in hallway interviews afterward. Farmers and others in the industry spoke about weather and tariffs in similar terms.

The word followed me to Indiana.

I traveled to Eck's farm on a bus carrying a Chinese trade delegation organized by the USSEC. After a presentation and a quick tour, the delegation left for the next stop. I stayed behind and sat down with Eck in his office.

"The biggest concern is always weather," he said, "That's the one thing we can't control." But there were "several things to go against weather", he added.

"If we have dry seasons, we have irrigation. If we have wet seasons, we have tile, which takes excess water away," he said. Waterways and filter strips could help keep nutrients and soil in place, he explained, and "that way we can be the lowest cost, most efficient supplier of soybeans".

Over the past generation, American agriculture has adopted more technology to reduce weather risk: seed genetics, precision planting, tile drainage and satellite data. Farmers like Eck can do more about a dry season than their fathers could. But no technology mitigates a tariff.

China has long been a crucial market for US soybeans. In the seven years before 2018, China accounted for an average of 60 percent of total US soybean exports, according to the American Soybean Association.

After Washington imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, Beijing retaliated with duties on US soybeans and other farm products. The US Department of Agriculture estimated that soybean farmers suffered $9.4 billion in annualized losses during the 2018 trade war, accounting for 71 percent of the $13.2 billion annualized losses in total US agricultural exports.

Today, US soybeans entering China face a 10 percent retaliatory tariff imposed in 2025 and a 3 percent most favored nation rate, while Brazilian and Argentine beans pay 3 percent.

"Did you feel any impact from the tariffs?" I asked Eck.

"You feel impact of everything, but what you worry about are the things that you can control," he said. "We're dealt a hand, and that's what we deal with."

He did not offer a number. USSEC had one. US soybean exports to China were down 45 percent year-to-date, USSEC said in Chicago, citing the USDA weekly export report released on July 23.

With policy beyond control, Eck said he would focus on "building relationships with customers".

That's also the strategy of the USSEC. At a news conference one day ahead of the Soy Connext in Chicago, USSEC CEO Jim Sutter told a room of about 20 reporters, mostly from Asian countries, that the diversification strategy paid off and shipments to the rest of the world, or ROW, were "up strongly" as of July 23 in the marketing year.

The industry uses ROW to measure export volume to all international buyers except China. According to the July 23 USDA report Sutter cited, the rest of the world bought 1.96 million metric tons more whole beans than a year earlier, while China bought 10.19 million metric tons less. The gain covers about a fifth of the hole.

Outside the office, Eck's wife Lisa called their son Cash over to meet me. The 16-year-old sometimes worked on the farm six to eight hours a day during the summer break.

"It is a big challenge overall but really rewarding when you get to the end to get that paycheck," he said.

Cash already planned to follow the path of his father to become the fourth generation on the farm.

"A farm around here has been up for 200 years," he said. "It's just the family keeps taking control, and I just I love that about farming, how it's just passing down."

Driving away, I kept thinking about Cash's words. Four generations take control of the farm, of soil, of water, of nutrients. Not of the price.