IMF chief warns high energy prices may persist even after Gulf conflict ends

SINGAPORE - International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that even if the conflict in the Gulf were to end soon, high energy prices would likely persist for some time.

"Brent futures, for example, now predict high oil prices through 2027," she said in the curtain-raiser speech for the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, which will take place from Oct 12 to 18 in Bangkok.

"So far, the energy price shock has been large but contained thanks to energy efficiency, fuel-source diversification, reserve releases, supply chain agility, and the usual organic demand and supply response," Georgieva said.

Nonetheless, despite a shaky recovery in flows out of the Gulf, oil prices remain around $100 a barrel, reflecting risks, high transport costs and other factors.

"Add to this a crack spread of about another $100 per barrel due to a global shortfall in refining capacity, and we get retail prices of diesel and other refined products at record highs," she said.

Natural gas supplies from the Gulf also remain severely impaired, reflecting more limited liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport options for as long as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains threatened, Georgieva said.

The disruption is having uneven effects around the world, with Asia and Europe particularly hard-hit, she noted.

"Price pressures may build further as countries replenish reserves and demand rises with the approach of the Northern hemisphere cold season," Georgieva said.