Shift shows maturing property market

Far-reaching shifts in China's real estate market at the outset of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) are expected to boost the purchase of completed homes and foster a new model of high-quality development, industry analysts said.

According to the experts, a major shift in supply and demand, along with the arrival of an era dominated by existing homes, will further bolster sales of completed properties.

Their comments followed recent remarks made by Vice-Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Chen Shaowang, who said China's property market had "officially entered a new era dominated by existing housing".

Addressing a State Council Information Office news conference on Sept 18 in Beijing, Chen said urban and rural development, housing and real estate, as well as the construction industry were at a critical stage of transformation.

Zhang Xuetao, an official with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed the arrival of the existing-home era.

"The share of pre-owned home transactions in total housing transactions rose from 27 percent in 2020 to 46 percent in 2025, then passed the 50 percent mark to reach 52 percent in the first eight months of this year," Zhang said.

"I believe this marks an important structural shift for the property market on the Chinese mainland," said Shaun Brodie, head of research content for China at Cushman & Wakefield, a global real estate services firm.

Calling it "an important milestone", Brodie said the shift is "a natural stage in the development of a more mature property market".

"It suggests that the property market on the Chinese mainland is evolving toward a more mature, more transparent and more sustainable model, with greater emphasis on the needs of end-users rather than on rapid expansion," Brodie said.

Li Yujia, a researcher specializing in residential policy in Guangdong province, said the declining proportion of new-home sales is an inevitable result of housing returning to its nature as a major consumer product.

"Since both pre-owned homes and newly built apartments are for living, homebuyers with inelastic demand in hot spot cities would naturally prefer existing homes because they are more widely available, priced lower, ready to move into, located in better-served and more convenient communities, and offer lower living costs and more convenient transportation," Li said.

According to Li, solid demand for homes in the secondary market is accompanied by shrinking demand for large newly built homes designed to meet higher living standards.

"The era of existing homes is also an era dominated by quality. Therefore, homebuyers tend to have more concrete, personalized and detailed requirements," Li said.

This trend is reflected in the NBS' data, with sales volume and value of new homes falling 13.0 percent and 13.1 percent year-on-year, respectively, from January to August nationwide. In contrast, the gross floor area of pre-owned homes transacted increased 10.6 percent year-on-year.

"This is the first time the NBS has published transaction data for pre-owned homes in the secondary market, which totaled 549.23 million square meters in the first eight months of the year," said Yan Yuejin, deputy head of the Shanghai-based E-House China R&D Institute.

According to Yan, the era of pre-owned homes is also accompanied by the promotion of completed homes in newly built commercial housing sales, allowing buyers to "get what they see" and reducing delivery risks.

"China's urbanization is shifting from rapid growth to more stable development, with cities placing greater emphasis on improving quality and efficiency rather than large-scale expansion," Chen said.

"Meanwhile, the construction sector is transitioning toward greater intelligence, sustainability and integration."

Over the next decade, Brodie said, "The focus is likely to move from building more housing to making better use of existing housing stock."

"Urban renewal, refurbishment, property services and asset management are likely to play a larger role in market activity," Brodie added.

In Brodie's view, as the market matures, buyers will pay closer attention to factors such as building quality, community facilities, sustainability and long-term livability, rather than simply the availability of new supply.

"For developers, this means adapting to a market where quality, reputation and delivery capability matter more than scale alone," Brodie said.