A new horizon for China-Uzbekistan ties

By Eldor Tulyakov | China Daily Global | Updated: 2026-09-06 23:33

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The two sides should enact focused measures and prioritize establishing joint innovation centers to contribute to a more connected and prosperous Central Asia

The 35th anniversary of Uzbekistan's independence in 2026 offers an opportunity to assess the country's priorities and their significance for its international partners.

Over the past three and a half decades, Uzbekistan has strengthened its sovereignty, modernized institutions and expanded global engagement. The next phase of growth will focus on productivity, technology, skills and deeper inclusion in regional and global value chains.

China is a key partner in Uzbekistan's transformation. In 2024, the two countries elevated their ties to an all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership for a new era, one built on political trust, expanding economic ties and a common commitment to a steady and flourishing Central Asia.

The updated Uzbekistan-2030 strategy provides a framework for bilateral cooperation in industrial upgrading, technology transfer, green manufacturing and regional connectivity. Uzbekistan aims to raise GDP to more than $240 billion and GDP per capita to $5,800 by 2030, while improving productivity, technological capacity and domestic value added.

Industrial modernization is key to this strategy. Uzbekistan plans to process more natural resources domestically, manufacture higher-value products and increase participation in international production networks. Industrial value added is projected to reach $60 billion by 2030.

China's experience is particularly relevant. Its transformation was driven by production ecosystems that connect infrastructure, technology, skills, logistics and export policy. While Uzbekistan does not intend to replicate this model, it recognizes that durable growth depends on industrial capability and integration into value chains.

This principle should guide the next phase of economic relations. The shift from a traditional "loan-equipment-construction" model to one centered on investment, localization and technology transfer marks a significant policy evolution, with important consequences for the quality and durability of Uzbekistan-China cooperation. Moving beyond simple infrastructure provision, this new approach prioritizes joint development of industrial capabilities and technological expertise within Uzbekistan. In this system, Chinese investment not only establishes new production capacity but also operates as a driving force for technology absorption and skills development among Uzbek suppliers, engineers and specialists. This deeper integration could foster a self-sustaining industrial ecosystem that can drive economic diversification and resilience. Consequently, goods produced through such cooperative efforts will be more likely to satisfy domestic demand, penetrate regional markets and achieve competitiveness in third-country exports. Ultimately, this policy shift supports Uzbekistan's wider goal of economic integration and sustainable development by embedding long-term value creation and knowledge transfer within bilateral projects.

The strategy envisages more than 400 projects backed by around $150 billion in investment. Uzbekistan also aims to increase exports of goods and services to $67 billion by 2030. The number of exporting enterprises is expected to grow from about 6,500 to 15,000, with finished and semi-finished goods making up 70 percent of exports. These targets underline a broader shift in which Uzbekistan desires not only greater investment volume, but also high developmental quality. Projects should transfer technology, create stable employment, expand exports and strengthen domestic production.

Digitization is another key focus. Uzbekistan plans to increase exports of IT services and software products to $5 billion and train millions with skills in digital technologies and artificial intelligence. AI will be introduced across manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, education, transport, public services and urban management.

Bilateral cooperation should prioritize digital infrastructure, joint applications and professional training. Smart monitoring can reduce water losses; predictive systems can minimize industrial downtime; and digital logistics can accelerate delivery.

Green energy is also a priority. Uzbekistan plans for renewables to supply 54 percent of electricity by 2030, with installed renewable capacity reaching 25 gigawatts. China's expertise in solar and wind equipment, storage, grid technology and electric transport provides a firm foundation for cooperation.

Water management is another priority. Uzbekistan aims to improve water-use efficiency by 25 percent, expand water-efficient technologies and modernize irrigation. Chinese solutions in drip irrigation, remote sensing, smart agriculture and digital water management can directly support economic and food security.

Transport connectivity is fundamental. For landlocked Uzbekistan, diversified routes are critical for economic security and access to global markets. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway should be seen not only as a transport project, but also as a foundation for industrial zones, logistics centers and new regional growth hubs.

This approach corresponds with Uzbekistan's vision for the Belt and Road Initiative. The goal is to move beyond being a transit territory by transforming transport corridors into economic corridors and integrating individual projects into production ecosystems.

Central Asian cooperation provides important context. Uzbekistan aims to increase trade with neighboring countries to $15 billion by 2030. To achieve this, it will pursue an open and balanced regional approach, welcoming collaboration with all partners. While deepening its partnership with China, Uzbekistan is also committed to strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation within Central Asia and with its immediate neighbors. The objective is to ensure regional integration is inclusive, transparent and mutually beneficial, enabling Uzbekistan to leverage opportunities with China and encourage trust and development across the region. A better connected region offers China reliable routes, larger markets and stronger conditions for regional production networks.

For China, the Uzbekistan-2030 strategy identifies priority sectors, creates a basis for systematic industrial and technological cooperation, and supports stability, connectivity and sustainable development across Central Asia.

As Uzbekistan marks 35 years of independence, its partnership with China is entering a more mature and strategically important stage. Therefore, the effectiveness of this developing relationship should be evaluated not solely by increases in trade volumes or the signing of bilateral agreements, but more critically by the extent to which both countries can generate sustainable shared value, foster human capital development, strengthen scientific collaboration, and jointly engage complex regional and global challenges. Such an evaluative framework stresses the importance of moving beyond quantitative measures to assess the qualitative impacts of cooperation, making sure that the partnership delivers meaningful and sustained benefits for both countries.

China and Uzbekistan could prioritize establishing joint innovation centers, expanding vocational training programs and promoting technology transfer through formal policy mechanisms. Furthermore, the two countries should develop coordinated mechanisms for monitoring project outcomes and facilitating regular dialogue among industrial stakeholders to generate long-term value for both sides. By enacting these focused policy measures, the partnership can be strengthened, resulting in sustainable and inclusive development for both countries, and contributing to a more connected and prosperous Central Asia.