Demand for widebody aircraft rising

Airbus expects China's demand for widebody aircraft to be increasingly driven by both international passenger travel and air freight over the next five years, as airlines replace aging jets and expand long-haul networks, company executives said.

Recent orders have lent weight to that view. China Eastern Airlines agreed in June to buy 25 A330neo passenger jets, Air China followed in July with an agreement for 15 A350-900s and Air China Cargo raised its order for the yet-to-fly A350F to 10 aircraft in May.

"China is not only Airbus' largest single-country market, but it also has enormous development potential," said Troy Wang, Airbus senior vice-president and head of commercial at Airbus China, during a recent news conference in Beijing.

"Fleet planning is moving away from the idea that one 'star' aircraft can serve every market," Wang said. "Airlines are becoming more precise, focusing on individual market segments and matching them with the most suitable aircraft."

The outlook aligns with China's civil aviation development plan for the 2026-30 period, which emphasizes stronger international connectivity, the development of a world-class global aviation hub network and the development of international air cargo networks.

Both passenger and cargo traffic grew robustly in the first half of 2026. International routes carried more than 40 million passengers, up 5.7 percent year-on-year, while international cargo and mail volume rose 13.9 percent to 2.32 million metric tons, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

On the passenger front, the sustained recovery of international routes is coinciding with an emerging widebody replacement cycle.

"China currently has an A330ceo fleet of nearly 200 aircraft, and more than half are between 11 and 20 years old," said Li Min, senior marketing director at Airbus China, adding that several airlines are planning upgrades to newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft.

Airbus estimates that around 170 widebody aircraft in China could be due for replacement between 2030 and 2035.

China Eastern's 25 A330neo aircraft, slated for delivery between 2029 and 2033, would be used mainly to add intercontinental destinations and increase frequencies from Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the airline said in a regulatory filing. It expects at least 10 of its existing A330ceos to retire during the delivery period.

Air China, meanwhile, agreed on July 17 to purchase 15 A350-900s for delivery between 2030 and 2032. The carrier said some of the aircraft would replace aging jets, although the transaction remains subject to shareholder and relevant regulatory approvals.

Air cargo has emerged as a parallel source of widebody demand, supported by Chinese manufacturers going global, cross-border e-commerce and high-tech exports.

"The most profound change for China's air cargo market is the shift from prioritizing passengers over cargo to developing the two in parallel," said Zhang Hanguang, marketing director at Airbus China, noting that dedicated freighters are now vital for safeguarding international supply chain stability.

While air freight accounts for less than 1 percent of global trade by weight, it represents nearly one-third by value, underscoring its important role for high-value and time-sensitive products, said Crawford Hamilton, head of freighter marketing at Airbus.

Airbus forecasts global air cargo traffic will grow at an average of 3.3 percent annually, generating demand for nearly 2,600 freighters over the next 20 years. The planemaker estimates that China could require about 615 of them, or nearly one-quarter of the global total.

The A350F is central to Airbus' attempt to capture that demand. Designed to carry up to 111 tons and equipped with what Airbus says is the industry's widest main-deck cargo door, the aircraft had already logged 107 firm orders globally, including 10 from Air China Cargo.

The freighter program is advancing toward flight testing, with the A350F's first commercial delivery targeted for the second half of 2027.

Turning demand into deliveries may remain challenging. Airbus' commercial aircraft backlog exceeds 9,300 jets, while delivery slots for high-demand widebody models are already committed well into the 2030s.