Ultra-rich shifting wealth away from Gulf region

Investor jitters over the Gulf’s fragile security environment are prompting wealthy families and founders to weigh shifting capital to rival financial hubs, according to bankers and advisers.
Anecdotal evidence suggested that high-net-worth individuals, or HNWIs, are already exploring moving their assets from the Middle East to other parts of Asia, with most of them preferring Singapore.
The reassessment comes despite an interim ceasefire arrangement between Iran and the United States in June. Renewed attacks in the region cast the spotlight on the importance of diversification in wealth management, especially in “the period of geoeconomic stress”, experts said.
Ian Yoong Kah Yin, a private equity investor and former investment banker in Malaysia, said that he has relatives and acquaintances based in the Middle East who returned to their home countries at the outset of the Iran war.
“Many contacts in hedge funds, asset management companies and family offices are in the process of relocating to Hong Kong and Singapore. There is after all a lot of planning and execution involved,” Yoong said.
Anthony Rollet, founder and CEO of Kane Capital Partners, a private equity real estate firm based in Indonesia, has seen high-net-worth families and family offices reassessing concentration risk and rebalancing capital owing to the escalating tensions in the Middle East.
“The period of geoeconomic stress has highlighted the importance of optionality. Investors who have best navigated this are the ones diversifying across regions,” Rollet said.
A month after the war erupted in the Middle East on Feb 28, data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore showed total deposits rose by S$66.2 billion ($51.6 billion), or 7.2 percent year on year, to S$2.1 trillion in March, accelerating from a 4.8 percent increase in February, according to a report in The Straits Times, a Singapore broadsheet.
The Straits Times quoted Malaysia-based Maybank’s economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee as saying these flows are reflected in an outsized jump in March for Singapore deposits, foreign currency deposits, deposits by non-residents, Monetary Authority of Singapore’s foreign reserves, and gold imports from Dubai.

In a report published on March 2, the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank, or UOB, said the widening conflict in “perceived safe states” like Dubai would raise Singapore’s “premium for stability”.
“This is especially important as the Middle East remains highly reliant on immigrant talent to drive growth. As such, capital inflows would likely accompany continued formation of single-family and multi-family offices,” UOB said, noting that this could reinforce the stability of the Singapore dollar.
Rollet of Kane Capital Partners said that “money is moving in two directions as investors seek to separate short-term reaction from long-term structure”.
He said established capital has reinforced traditional safe harbors like Switzerland and Hong Kong. But a newer stream of wealth has emerged and is flowing into Southeast Asia with steady momentum.
“Hong Kong and Singapore are deep, liquid, proven markets that offer free capital movement, low taxes, and internationally recognized legal frameworks. In moments of geopolitical stress, capital naturally shifts toward trusted and established markets,” Rollet said.
Dubai was once positioned as a premier destination for HNWIs, with the latter attracted by its zero-taxation, safety, connectivity and conducive business environment. But the US-Israel war on Iran clouded Dubai’s safe-haven status.
“Even if hostilities stopped right now, I don’t think investor confidence (in the Middle East) would come back very soon,” said Julia Roknifard, senior lecturer at Taylor’s University in Malaysia.

Uncertainty remains
Roknifard said countries like the United Arab Emirates, used to present themselves as “desirable places” for investments. But she noted how the war has damaged critical infrastructure like oil and gas processing facilities and that restoring them will take years.
“They will not be able to rebuild this image (of being investor-friendly) while still rebuilding the infrastructure,” Roknifard said.
She said investors would likely be thinking twice before returning to the Middle East.
Beyond financial flows, the disruption extends to lifestyle and connectivity — key elements that made Dubai attractive to wealthy expatriates.
But given the uncertainty, Roknifard said that people will also move together with their investments, seeing how unsafe it is for them to stay or be assured that they can travel for business without being disrupted.
These investors may have “already found some new homes or some of the investments have been returning to the places where they’ve been before. So maybe they would think that there is no point in shifting investments back even after the situation stabilizes,” Roknifard said.
For Paul Bratby, the Dubai-based founder and CEO of xBratAI, an AI-powered trading signal platform, the data tell a more nuanced story on the wealth outflows from the Gulf.
Citing Henley’s Global Wealth Mobility Framework, Bratby said there was a 41 percent jump in inquiries from UAE-based individuals between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, plus a 29 percent rise in applications for alternative residence or citizenship. Bratby said Henley’s verdict is blunt: “The UAE story in 2026 is one of diversification and optionality, not an exodus.
“Where capital did move outward, it was portfolio diversification, not capital flight.”
He noted that Gulf sovereign wealth funds deployed roughly $56 billion globally in the first nine months of 2025, with about 40 percent directed toward Asia.
Bratby said this reflects a broader trend: Global millionaire relocation is set to reach roughly 165,000 in 2026, so what is happening in the Gulf is one chapter in a worldwide shift toward spreading bets across jurisdictions.
Bratby launched xBratAI in Hong Kong in May and had conversations with finance professionals across the region.
“What struck me wasn’t a single conversation about leaving Dubai behind. Not one. Over and over, the message was the same: They wanted Asia access and a Gulf base, not one instead of the other,” Bratby said. He noted that when a manager with a Dubai family office puts capital into Southeast Asia, they are not walking out the door, they are using Dubai as the launchpad.
Bratby said that a peace deal between the US and Iran would “absolutely help” as it would lift the regional risk premium, reopen trade routes and bring shipping insurance costs back down.
“But here’s the truth. Dubai doesn’t need a deal to keep growing and I’ll give you the clearest proof I have, which is my own checkbook.”
At the height of the tension in the Middle East, Bratby sat down with his team and asked themselves the hard question: Do we slow down in Dubai and shift our weight to Hong Kong?
Bratby’s team, in the end, decided to stay in Dubai. They renewed the business license, grew the local team, and doubled down on their work.
“Because what global capital actually wants is simple, legal certainty, transparency, and the freedom to move money and Dubai keeps delivering all three no matter what’s happening across the border,” Bratby said.

Portfolio diversification
Diversification has always been part of high-net-worth individuals’ wealth management strategy, according to Abbas Hashmi, principal of Saudi Family Holdings, a single-family office based in New York and Riyadh.
Hashmi was in Hong Kong last month as one of the speakers at LEAP East 2026 — the first Asia-Pacific edition of the technology exhibition which originated in Saudi Arabia.
In an interview with China Daily, Hashmi said it is “highly unlikely” for an ultra-high-net-worth individual who has $60 million assets under management to be invested either in one asset class, one geography or one product.
“It’s not about whether the money is moving out. It is about how well diversified their portfolio is,” Hashmi said.

He said the geopolitical tension has led to “uncertainty” with respect to continuing business operations in the Middle East, but he noted this is not the case when it comes to maintaining assets in the region.
“If I have to keep my money, if I’m keeping $10 million in the UAE, I’m not going to be worried about the peace talks failing or the war prolonging beyond that. I will make a conscious decision and not a knee-jerk reaction to these talks or the geopolitical crisis,” Hashmi said.
But in the event that it becomes impossible for these HNWIs to keep the funds in the Gulf, they traditionally move their assets to other safe havens, he added.
“Singapore has been leading in this space for a very long time, but I’m seeing Hong Kong coming out with a lot of incentives (for) family offices.”

prime@chinadailyapac.com