US pivots to pressuring Iran's economy

The administration of United States President Donald Trump appears to be shifting Washington's approach with Tehran from military threats to economic pressure, as the contentious reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drags on despite Iran signaling that an agreement with Oman is on the horizon.

Trump told US-based news outlet Axios on Sunday that Washington was "only semi-negotiating" with Tehran and stressed that Iran is in "very bad shape" economically.

"We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money," Axios quoted Trump as saying.

He said the US blockade has exacerbated Iran's economic crisis, adding that with oil down to slightly over $75 a barrel, consumers in the US are feeling less pain from the conflict.

"It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the situation with Iran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told journalists on Sunday that Tehran is not currently engaged in negotiations with Washington, but messages were being exchanged through intermediaries.

At his weekly news briefing on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that monitoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was "natural".

Baghaei said discussions on the possibility of Iran imposing transit fees on vessels passing through the strait are still underway, and Iran is not currently discussing the issue.

He said talks have covered mechanisms for monitoring navigation safety, environmental issues and maritime services, noting that their provision would naturally entail service charges.

Regarding mine clearance along the central route of the Strait of Hormuz, Baghaei referred to Clause 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which he said the US violated, stressing that Iran's role is clearly specified in the agreement.

He said the memorandum of understanding, aimed at ending the conflict, stated Iran's responsibility for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, including ensuring its security. He added that the matter should be pursued between Iran and Oman.

He called on regional countries to cooperate and strengthen their own security without relying on foreign powers, citing the latest developments regarding the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, according to Iran's Mehr News Agency. The agreement was signed over the weekend by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye.

Baghaei stressed that the pact is a sign of a changing perception among regional states, highlighting that the signatories have realized that security cannot be provided by relying on foreign powers.

He said countries in the region have increasingly recognized the source of the greatest threat to stability and security in the region and beyond, particularly since the start of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict three years ago.

Baghaei blamed the US for the region's insecurity, arguing that Israel could not have carried out its actions without support from Washington. He stressed Iran's view that regional security is indivisible, and insecurity in any country will inevitably spread to others.

Abdolreza Alami, a senior lecturer at the Faculty of Communication and Media Studies at Universiti Teknologi MARA in Malaysia, told China Daily that Trump's shift should be read less as a sign of moderation than as recognition of the limits and costs of military coercion.

"Months of confrontation have shown that strikes can damage Iran, but they cannot compel Tehran, eliminate its retaliatory capacity, or secure the Strait of Hormuz at an acceptable cost," said Alami.

"Iran's ability to impose risks on US bases, Gulf infrastructure and energy flows has altered Washington's calculation. Domestic considerations also matter: Trump faces public fatigue, congressional elections and sensitivity to fuel prices, while regional partners press for de-escalation," he added.

Alami noted that lower oil prices give the Trump administration a tactical window to intensify sanctions without burdening US consumers. However, he said that economic pressure is coercion by another means, and is not a sustainable diplomatic strategy.

Cui Haipei in Dubai, UAE, contributed to this story.

jan@chinadailyapac.com