Negotiating the 'Gracchi Trap'

The 21st century is going to be marked by China's peaceful development as a driver of change

For decades, the United States has occupied an undisputed leadership position in the international system. Its military superiority, the global influence of the dollar, the power of its technology companies, and its capacity to project political and cultural influence have allowed it to consolidate unprecedented hegemony since the end of the Cold War. However, some analysts argue that this historical cycle is entering a phase of exhaustion. This is not necessarily a sudden collapse; rather, we are witnessing the gradual diminishing capacity of the US to impose its will in an increasingly multipolar world.

Some specialists have invoked the so-called Gracchi Trap to interpret this evolution. Coined from the crisis of the Roman Republic triggered by the failed reforms of Tiberius and Gaius Gracchus, the concept describes the moment when political polarization, the inability to reform institutions and conflict among elites ultimately weaken a great power's position. The comparison is not intended to draw an absolute parallel between Rome and the US, but rather to warn that internal divisions can become the primary factor in the erosion of a country.

One of the elements fueling this interpretation is the growing political polarization in the US. The institutional system is going through a period of constant confrontation in which basic consensus is increasingly difficult to achieve. The alternation between administrations of opposing ideologies leads to abrupt shifts in national and international priorities, hindering the continuity of public policies. This dynamic fosters a sense of paralysis that reduces the US capacity to address structural problems such as aging infrastructure, increasing inequality and the modernization of healthcare systems.

Social fragmentation accompanies this political crisis. The gap between the economic elite and broad sectors of the population has widened in recent decades. Although the US economy remains one of the most dynamic in the world, wealth growth has been concentrated in a relatively small segment of society. Rising housing costs, student debt, high healthcare costs and the precariousness of certain jobs have contributed to profound discontent among millions of citizens.

In the economic sphere, too, there are contradictory signs. The US maintains an extraordinary capacity for innovation, leads or co-leads strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and the aerospace industry, and it continues to attract international investment. However, these strengths coexist with structural problems such as high public debt, persistent fiscal deficits and increasing pressure on the international role of the US dollar. Although the US dollar remains the world's primary reserve asset, numerous countries are seeking to diversify their payment systems and, to a certain degree, reduce their financial dependence on Washington.

Since the launch of the reform and opening-up, China has gone from being a backward economy to becoming the world's second-largest economy, or the largest in terms of purchasing power parity, and the US' main strategic competitor. Its industrial expansion, its leadership in numerous supply chains and its successes in applied artificial intelligence, telecommunications, renewable energy and high-speed transportation have profoundly helped shape the international economic balance.

Unlike other historical competitors of the US, China possesses an exceptional combination of population size, industrial capacity, technological development and growing diplomatic influence. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS and the creation of new international financial institutions reflect China's effort to help reform the United Nations-centered international order to be fairer and more inclusive as well as more representative of the whole Global South.

This transformation implies that the relative stagnation of the US is not solely due to its internal problems and that China's sustained development can be an impetus for the US to better play its own role in virtually every sphere. While Washington concentrates a significant portion of its resources on maintaining its global network of alliances and military superiority, Beijing has prioritized trade expansion, strategic investments and technological development as instruments of international projection and sets itself as an example to the rest of the Global South.

These differences are also evident in the geopolitical arena. After the end of the Cold War, the US enjoyed virtually unlimited leeway. However, its prolonged military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrated the limitations of military power in resolving complex political problems. At the same time, several allies are demanding greater strategic autonomy, and some emerging economies prefer to maintain equidistant positions between Washington and Beijing rather than fully align themselves with either.

The relations between the two countries are not limited to trade. They encompass technological innovation, access to critical raw materials, space race, semiconductors, digital infrastructure and influence over international organizations.

However, it is important to avoid overly deterministic interpretations. The US remains the world's greatest military power, is home to prestigious universities, retains enormous appeal for international investment and maintains an extraordinary capacity for scientific and business innovation. Furthermore, its institutional system has historically demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt after periods of crises.

The fundamental question is whether these strengths will be enough to prevent the "Gracchi Trap" from becoming a political reality. If internal divisions in the US continue to deepen, the transition to a clearly multipolar international order could accelerate in the coming decades.

The debate about the decline of US power revolves not so much around an immediate collapse as it does around a gradual loss of the capacity to exercise unquestionable hegemony.

The combination of political polarization, social tensions, fiscal problems and growing intention to escalate competition with China paints a picture in which Washington's global leadership can no longer be taken for granted.

The author is an economist, an adviser at the Cátedra China Foundation, Spain, and the author of the book Why China Is Winning. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.