Is El Nino's economic risk too hot to handle?

Africa vulnerable

An impending super El Nino is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank's top climate expert told Reuters.

As well as the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also be undermined if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay the connected loans.

"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by one to two percent on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent," said Anthony Nyong, the ADB's director for climate change and green growth.

The development bank's most recent forecast in May, which did not take into account a super El Nino, predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2 percent economic growth this year, rising to 4.4 percent in 2027, assuming the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran eases.

Governments in Africa were also getting snared in what Nyong described as the "climate finance trap", where they lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education or infrastructure budgets to meet costs.

The 2023-24 El Nino caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains or flooding in East Africa. These conditions led to widespread crop failures, surging food prices and record-breaking sea-level spikes along the continent's coastlines.

The ADB has estimated Africa's farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fishing industries could also be hit hard due to rising sea temperatures and storms.

"When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back," Nyong said. "We don't want our countries to slide into poverty."

He said the ADB stood ready to restructure projects to help countries manage El Nino's impacts and it would work with them to tap additional multilateral support such as the Green Climate Fund, the world's largest dedicated climate fund.

Humanitarian pressures would add to the problems, Nyong said. The bank has identified Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and even Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe impacts.

"When this El Nino comes there is going to be mass migration," he said, adding that the price of maize — a key food staple in many affected countries — was expected to double. "You are not going to stay put, you are going to move," he said.

The African Union Commission has called on its members to step up preparedness for the expected impact of El Nino.

"The 2026-27 El Nino event is projected to be the strongest since 1950. This is not a distant possibility. It is an imminent risk that demands immediate preparation at national, regional and continental levels," Moses Vilakati, AU commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment said on Thursday in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, while opening the extraordinary session of a special technical committee looking at the weather pattern.

Many regions of the continent are likely to experience severe droughts, devastating floods, prolonged heat waves, disruptions to food production, water shortages, disease outbreaks and increased humanitarian needs.

"These impacts will not only affect vulnerable households; they will also place considerable pressure on national economies, public finances and regional stability," he said.

"This is neither speculative nor unprecedented. We have already witnessed the devastating consequences of delayed action," he warned, citing the 2023-2024 El Nino that affected millions of people in Africa.