Europe faces rocky path to defense autonomy: Experts

Europe is accelerating its drive for greater self-reliance on defense, a move that experts say faces a host of challenges stemming from both internal divisions and external pressures. They also caution that shifts in Europe's defense posture could result in heightened regional military tensions.

Last week offered a vivid illustration of this ambition when Germany and France announced a historic first: German troops would participate in a French nuclear exercise. This builds on earlier initiatives, including the announcement of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition.

A joint declaration released by the French presidency on July 13, signed by leaders from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and Ukraine, described the coalition as "purely defensive", citing the growing threat of ballistic missiles and the increasing importance of European defense capabilities.

Experts say these initiatives underscore a broader European push for strategic autonomy, driven by the prolonged war in Ukraine and increasingly shaky trans-Atlantic ties.

Wu Huiping, deputy director of the German Studies Center at Tongji University, pointed to a deteriorating European security environment. "The security situation in Europe has long been severe and is now strained by the protracted Ukraine conflict, with no end or solution in sight, and by Middle Eastern conflicts spilling external risks into the region."

Furthermore, Wu highlighted an increasingly loosening trans-Atlantic security alliance, as the US cuts military commitments to Europe, threatening troop withdrawals from Germany and even a NATO exit. These escalating security risks, she said, are driving Europe to strengthen its defense autonomy.

While the EU proposed the "ReArm Europe" plan last year, with countries intensifying cooperation in joint procurement and research and development to advance defense autonomy, experts pointed out that the process still faces significant headwinds.

Wu noted that despite loosening its security commitments, the US still seeks to exert control over European security. "Europe needs to find a balance between NATO and strategic autonomy."

Internally, the picture is even more complex.

"European countries differ on security interests and willingness to cooperate. Countries bordering Russia think they have greater security needs, while Central and Eastern European nations like Poland and the Czech Republic are more aligned with the US. Even within the Franco-German axis, which has close military cooperation, there are cases where collaboration stalls or fails," Wu said.

In June, Germany and France halted the development of a jointly planned fighter jet under the Future Combat Air System project, citing irreconcilable differences between defense contractors. Launched in 2017, the FCAS was intended as a flagship European defense project.

Structural dilemma

Jian Junbo, a professor and director of the Center for China-Europe Relations at Fudan University, said the failure reflects a structural dilemma in European defense integration.

"European countries are deeply divided over building a unified defense market. Integration would open up a massive market, with defense contractors from different nations competing for shares, each backed by their own government, fueling an internal battle for dominance and profit."

Jian emphasized that without major European countries compromising on market share, defense integration will be severely hindered.

"With diverse weapons systems, Europe's ability to achieve defense integration and independence would be seriously hampered."

He predicted Europe will keep pushing for defense autonomy, driven by the objective trend of reduced US investment and the subjective perception of a Russian threat.

"But as integration deepens, deeper internal contradictions will surface. Whether Europe can truly achieve defense integration and strategic independence remains to be seen."

Beyond internal dynamics, these changes also raise concerns about the risk of exacerbating military tensions in the region, experts said.

Jian cautioned that a rise in Europe's military capabilities would alter its military balance with Russia.

"As Europe's military capacity grows, and given Europe's hostility toward Russia, Moscow may accelerate military deployment along its borders and ramp up its own military capabilities. This could trigger a new arms race and escalate military confrontation."

yangran1@chinadaily.com.cn