Confidence returning to global art market

China's art market is showing early signs of stabilizing after a five-year downturn, with auction prices edging higher and bidding activity returning close to historical averages, according to a report released on Friday, adding to evidence that a broader recovery is taking hold in the global art market.

The report, published jointly by the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business and Italy's SDA Bocconi School of Management, found that the MM Chinese Art Price Index, which tracks auction prices, rose 1.7 percent during the spring 2026 auction season after slipping in the autumn 2025 auction season. At the same time, the MM Chinese Art Sentiment Index, which measures bidding intensity by comparing hammer prices with auction estimates, also improved and approached its long-term average, indicating stronger competition among buyers.

The rebound in the Chinese art market coincides with gains in the report's two other major global price benchmarks, with the MM Impressionist Art Price Index climbing 15 percent and the MM Contemporary Art Price Index rising 10.8 percent, the first time in years that all three major art price indexes increased simultaneously.

"The spring 2026 auction season suggests confidence is returning to parts of the global art market," said Mei Jianping, professor of finance at CKGSB and lead author of the report.

Chinese artworks remain the strongest-performing segment over the past 25 years, despite a deep adjustment in recent years amid the COVID-19 pandemic, China's economic transition and a global art market downturn. The report showed the MM Chinese Art Price Index has risen nearly sevenfold since 2000, delivering a compound annual growth rate of 7.8 percent, compared with 4.8 percent for the MM Contemporary Art Price Index and 3.5 percent for the MM Impressionist Art Price Index.

Mei said the global art market has significantly lagged the rapid expansion of global wealth over the past 25 years, particularly wealth generated by advances in artificial intelligence.

"This spring auction season indicates the onset of a market revival," Mei said. "Considering the massive wealth generated over the past quarter-century, especially by recent breakthroughs in AI technology, the current market may present a historic window of opportunity for collectors and investors."

The report also pointed to a growing divide within China's art market as collectors continued to favor works with broader international appeal, such as contemporary artworks and oil paintings. During this year's spring auctions, the MM Chinese Oil Painting Index jumped 21.9 percent and the MM Chinese Contemporary Art Index rose 18.6 percent, while the MM Chinese Ink Painting Index fell 4 percent and the MM Chinese Modern Art Index declined 4.7 percent.

Mei attributed part of the shift to the growing internationalization of collecting Chinese art since the early 2000s as overseas buyers have become more active, making the market more sensitive to global collecting trends.

Beyond China, the report found that European art also rebounded in the spring, with France posting a 24.7 percent increase and Britain rising 18.5 percent, although long-term returns remained modest. The researchers said that years of relatively weak performance could leave parts of the European market attractively valued for long-term investors.

Despite the rapid creation of AI-related wealth, Mei said much of that capital has yet to flow into art because investors continue to see better returns in technology assets.

"The opportunity cost is still high," he said, adding that many entrepreneurs and investors enriched by the AI boom remain focused on growing their businesses rather than building art collections.

Asked whether AI-generated artworks could become valuable collectibles, Mei said that such works are likely to have artistic value but are unlikely to command the same long-term significance as works created by human artists.