Heat damages European grain production

Recent heat waves that have blighted much of Europe look set to have an enduring and far-reaching legacy after the continent's grain trade association revealed the full impact they have had on production.

The Financial Times quoted the group, Coceral, as estimating that almost 9 million tons of grain were removed from production forecasts in the four weeks following June's extreme heat.

The United Kingdom-based Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, or ECIU, values this overall lost productivity revenue at around 5 percent, or just over 2 billion euros ($2.28 billion) based on last year's farm gate prices, which are the prices paid to producers before factors such as distribution are factored in.

France, which saw temperatures reach 43 C, and Hungary, which recorded in excess of 40 C, are thought to be the two countries most seriously affected by western Europe's hottest June on record, with maize, primarily used as animal feed, accounting for around half the lost productivity.

As a result, Coceral has reduced its maize productivity forecast for the European Union and UK, from 57.2 million tons to 52.7 million tons. The fall in domestic productivity could increase the need for imports from other suppliers, such as Brazil and Ukraine, and also impact France's ability to export to livestock producers in Africa, with economic consequences there as well.

The French agriculture sector in general has been left reeling by June's extreme temperatures, with Annie Genevard, France's agriculture minister, having previously said it was in "crisis mode", and France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu calling an interministerial meeting earlier this month to assess its impact, and how to respond to it.

Tom Lancaster, land, food, and farming analyst at the ECIU, said the timing of the heat waves could hardly have been worse, for economic and food security reasons. He also stressed that they were warning signs of the need to take action or face greater problems in the future.

"With clear, scientific proof that climate change was to blame for severity of the June heat wave, these losses are just a portent of the future impacts we will see if we don't reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and bring our climate back into balance," he said. "In the UK, we have already seen three of the five worst harvests on record this decade, and recent heat waves here will inevitably have cost British farmers again."

Kai Kornhuber, theme lead for weather extremes and climate dynamics at the Vienna-based independent International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, added: "It is scientifically undisputed that anthropogenic (human-induced) warming is the main driver of these unprecedented heat extremes, which will continue to negatively affect agricultural production unless emissions are reduced."