US-Iran strikes deepen crisis amid dispute over waterway

Several days of assaults by the United States and Iran across the Gulf region have marked the sharpest escalation since the two reached a vague interim deal last month. Both claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz, casting doubt on diplomatic efforts to end the war.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday that it targeted US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, destroyed radar installations in Oman, and struck fuel tanks and ammunition depots at Jordan's Prince Hassan Air Base.

The US military said it hit dozens of sites in the strikes against Iran on Monday, including air defense systems, radar sites, missile and drone equipment and small boats. Iranian media earlier confirmed explosions in the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask, as well as nearby Qeshm Island.

The two sides are halfway through a 60-day timeline laid out in the interim accord, which was meant to pave the way for negotiations on a permanent ceasefire. The latest wave of violence has again stoked global fears of a full-scale regional war.

"A return to full-scale hostilities would have catastrophic consequences," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Sunday.

Iran warned it would stop honoring the memorandum of understanding if Washington fails to deliver on its commitments.

"Each time the other party fails to meet its obligations, we will withhold our compliance," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on Monday.

"We will continue to act in this manner," he said.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator and parliament speaker, posted on X: "The era of one-sided deals is over. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking."

In a phone interview with Fox News on Monday, US President Donald Trump said the US would probably take over the Strait of Hormuz and "should be reimbursed" for controlling the vital waterway.

"We're going to keep the strait, and we'll probably run it. We'll become the guardian of the strait. ... And we should be reimbursed for that," he was quoted as saying to the news channel by Reuters.

In a statement issued on Monday, the Revolutionary Guards said the only way to restore regular traffic through the strait was to end US military interventions in the crucial maritime corridor, warning that "continued interference could lead to greater incidents in the global oil and gas sector".

The global benchmark Brent crude climbed 4.3 percent to reach $79.31 per barrel on Monday, though it remained well below wartime peaks. The strait carried one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war.

Iran's recently created Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on Sunday that passage through the strait was not currently possible because of "unlawful US military activity in the region". Navigation permits would resume only once calm and stability are restored, it added.

The US Central Command countered on X, saying the strait is "open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit" and that "Iran does not control it".

Trita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a US think tank, said that disagreements over interim-period maritime governance lie at the root of current tensions.

Military strikes cannot shift the core strategic realities to favor either side, Parsi told Al Jazeera.

"At best, this far more intense round of fighting may push both sides back to the negotiating table, as they realize that compromise is necessary," he said.

'Gray zone'

Ebtesam Al Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center in the United Arab Emirates, said Gulf states are trapped in a conflict "gray zone" as limited strikes serve as political signals and maritime pressure acts as bargaining leverage.

Gulf nations need long-term frameworks to manage chronic risk amid incomplete peace, she warned in a commentary for the UAE daily The National.

"When regional and international actors grow accustomed to limited escalation ... the meaning of stability begins to change," she wrote.

"The Gulf states' biggest challenge may be not allowing this limbo of neither war nor peace to become a permanent fate and not allowing limited conflict to reshape their future."