Foreign trade to maintain momentum

Despite uncertainty over global demand stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflicts, China's exports are expected to remain a key driver of economic growth in 2026, supported by resilient overseas demand for the country's high-tech and green products, economists and exporters said.

They said the establishment of a China-US trade council and both sides' adoption of a "constructive strategic stability" approach toward bilateral ties could help prevent a repeat of the major trade disruptions seen last year, providing a more predictable environment for businesses while supporting export growth.

Sheana Yue, senior economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said China's competitive advantages are also helping offset external headwinds.

While tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are expected to dampen global demand, China is poised to gain market share in affected supply chains and benefit from robust demand for products in which the country has a competitive advantage, including electric vehicles, solar panels and lithium batteries, Yue said.

That view is in line with the latest foreign trade data. China's exports of mechanical and electrical products rose 18.4 percent year-on-year to 7.58 trillion yuan ($1.12 trillion) in the first five months, said the General Administration of Customs.

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the momentum is likely to extend into the second half, with exports expected to continue posting double-digit growth.

The outlook is underpinned by the ongoing artificial intelligence supercycle, the United States' relatively moderate tariff policy that will help ease cost pressures on exporters, and a range of supportive measures aimed at strengthening the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, said Wen.

China's foreign trade grew 15.3 percent year-on-year to 20.68 trillion yuan during the January-May period, with exports rising 11.8 percent and imports jumping 20.5 percent, according to customs data.

Li Xingqian, vice-chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that amid rising uncertainties surrounding global industrial and supply chains, China's high-standard opening-up, comprehensive industrial base, and improving product and service quality have helped maintain foreign trade on a steady growth trajectory, providing a stabilizing force for the global economy.

Amid continued volatility in global energy markets, persistently high costs for conventional energy and the accelerating global transition toward green and low-carbon energy, Jenmour New Energy, a Rizhao, Shandong province-based wind turbine manufacturer, is capitalizing on growing overseas opportunities.

"Our 100-kilowatt-class wind turbines have been exported to more than a dozen countries and regions, establishing three core markets in East Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia, while steadily expanding into niche markets in Africa," said Liu Dongnan, the company's chairman.

Jenmour's exports reached 22.53 million yuan in the first half, up more than 60 percent on a yearly basis, according to Qingdao Customs.

Chinese exporters are already translating that momentum into overseas expansion across a range of industries. In late June, two China-Europe freight trains carrying 110 containers loaded with 260 elevators departed from Shenyang, Liaoning province, for the European market, marking the launch of the city's first dedicated rail service for exporting domestically produced elevators to Europe.

China-Europe freight train services from Shenyang now connect the city with more than 50 cities in over 20 countries, handling more than 5,000 categories of goods, including mechanical and electrical products, garments and footwear, said Shenyang Customs.