Can tech help adapt to demographic change?

Global demographic trends underpin significant transformations that profoundly impact sustainable development. The key trends that are impacting people and societies across the globe include continued population growth in some regions, progressive population aging and, in some cases, population decline in other regions, as well as international migration and other changes in the spatial distribution of populations. There is, however, considerable variation across countries and regions in both the timing and the intensity of these changes. Moreover, the underlying causes and implications of these trends continue to evolve. In this context, it is fitting to ask whether recent technological advances can assist countries address the challenges and benefit from the opportunities inherent in such demographic transformations.

Technological advances have transformed our understanding of population dynamics and our ability to respond. Innovations in data systems — from digital data collection, including for censuses, to analytical techniques relying on geospatial information or big data — have dramatically improved the timeliness and granularity of information about population trends. Such tools are assisting governments in tracking population changes, identifying vulnerable groups and designing targeted policies. They are indispensable for evidence-based decision-making in an era of rapid demographic change.

In the area of health, technological innovation has already yielded profound benefits. Vaccines alone have prevented an estimated 154 million deaths since the 1970s, contributing to substantial reductions in mortality, especially among children. Digital health tools such as telemedicine and artificial intelligence-assisted diagnostics are expanding access to care, particularly in remote areas, and enabling more personalized approaches to the prevention and treatment of disease. These advancements affect demographic trends by contributing to further increases in human longevity while supporting good health among the growing population of older persons. Similarly, technological advances and improved access to sexual and reproductive health services shape fertility choices and outcomes.

Together, these various changes have had significant impacts on both population age structures and the quality of life. In high-fertility settings, innovations in contraceptive methods and maternal health care have reduced unintended pregnancies and prevented avoidable deaths. In low-fertility contexts, assisted reproductive technologies are offering new options for individuals to realize their desired family size.

Technology is also reshaping the economic dimensions of demographic change. Automation, digital platforms and AI are transforming labor markets, potentially helping countries to adapt to shrinking workforces in aging societies, expand labor force opportunities for women, older persons and marginalized groups, and foster innovation and entrepreneurship.

At the same time, educational technologies and digital learning platforms are expanding access to training and skills development, which are critical for harnessing the demographic dividend when countries with younger populations lower their fertility rate and thereby raise the ratio of adults to children.

However, these benefits of technological progress are distributed unevenly. Today, only a fraction of the global population has meaningful access to advanced digital tools such as AI, and large gaps persist in basic connectivity. In least developed countries, internet access remains far below the global average, and disparities by gender, income, age and disability are pronounced. These divides risk reinforcing existing inequalities and creating new forms of exclusion.

Moreover, technology introduces new risks that have direct implications for population well-being. Digital platforms can proliferate misinformation, undermine public trust and harm mental health, particularly among young people. Technology-facilitated violence and online harassment disproportionately affect women and girls, limiting their participation in public life. Without adequate safeguards, the same tools that empower can also harm.

Crucially, the core challenges of demographic change are not technical problems alone. The challenges of population aging, for example, cannot be addressed simply by increased reliance on robotics or telemedicine: they also require comprehensive social protection systems, age-friendly labor markets and investments in long-term care. Similarly, while assistive technologies and digital health solutions can support healthy aging and independent living, they cannot replace human care or social solidarity.

Low fertility in many countries reflects complex social and economic realities: high and rising housing costs, persistent job insecurity, widespread gender inequality and the unresolved incompatibility of work and family life. While reproductive technologies can address some aspects of low birth rates, they cannot negate the structural conditions that shape people's decisions about whether and when to have children.

In the context of high fertility and rapid population growth, technology can support improvements in health and education, but it cannot substitute for investments in human capital and a commitment to achieving full employment with decent work and inclusive development. The demographic dividend depends not only on the relative size of the working-age population but also on the opportunities available to it.

Technological transformation must be guided by the core principles of human rights, inclusivity and equity. For technology to serve people — not the other way around — countries need robust governance frameworks, sustained investments in digital literacy and deliberate efforts to close the divides in access and capacity.

Reaping the full benefits of technological progress also demands renewed attention to foundational needs. In many parts of the world, basic infrastructure, such as electrification, internet connectivity and civil registration systems, remains incomplete. Cutting-edge innovations cannot compensate for gaps in these essential ingredients of inclusive and sustainable development. Indeed, the most impactful interventions are often those that combine simple, proven solutions with appropriate technologies and robust delivery systems.

Looking ahead, the question is not whether technology can solve demographic challenges, but rather how it can be harnessed responsibly and equitably. This requires investing in inclusive digital infrastructure, strengthening national research capacities and ensuring that all countries can participate in and benefit from scientific progress. It also requires embedding ethical considerations, including personal privacy, informed consent and accountability mechanisms, into the design and deployment of emerging technologies.

Technology is a powerful enabler, but it is not a substitute for sound public policies, strong institutions and a commitment to human rights. The experience of recent decades shows that technology amplifies existing conditions: where governance is inclusive and equitable, technology can accelerate progress; where inequalities persist, it can deepen them.

The future will be shaped by the interplay between population trends, technological innovation and public policy. If we strike the right balance — placing human rights, free choice, fairness and equity at the center — technology can help societies to adapt to demographic change and to unlock new opportunities for inclusive and sustainable development. If our approach is imbalanced, technological progress has the potential to deepen divides and to leave the most vulnerable even further behind.

John Wilmoth is former director of the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations; and Cheryl Sawyer heads the Population Trends and Analysis Branch in the Population Division.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.