NATO summit kicks off amid defense push

NATO started its two-day summit on Tuesday in Ankara, Turkiye, amid protests in the Eurasian capital city against the military alliance's push for higher defense spending, which mounts pressure on Europe's already-strained budget and intensifies tensions between the continent and the United States.

US President Donald Trump, who has been gradually pulling some of US assets and military deployments out of Europe in the past few months, is expected to continue pushing NATO countries to spend 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense.

Just days ahead of the summit, the president had said it would be "ridiculous" for his country to maintain what he described as its "one-sided" approach to NATO.

The president has at times piled on the pressure by questioning the usefulness and viability of NATO following the nonengagement of European allies in US' conflict with Iran. He recently reignited a feud with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni when his interest in acquiring Greenland kept unsettling Europe.

Janina Dill, a professor of global security at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government, said the summit reflects a much broader shift in Europe's strategic landscape, and Europe faces a historic turning point to take far greater responsibility for its own security.

"The system within which Europe has kept itself safe for the last 80 years is gone," she said. "The trans-Atlantic alliance is no longer there for Europe to keep itself safe." She said European countries must deepen their cooperation and significantly increase defense investment if they are to maintain strategic autonomy.

Angel Saz-Carranza, director of EsadeGeo Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics in Spain, said the alliance has adapted to the new political reality and is facing challenges to hold steady.

"The international community should watch whether allies can agree on a clearer division of responsibilities within NATO while keeping the US engaged in European security," he said.

During last year's summit in The Hague, under pressure from the US — which shoulders over 60 percent of NATO expenditure — other states agreed to hike their defense budgets from an average of about 2 percent of national annual GDP to 5 percent, by 2035 — a commitment Spain has refused, and which some countries are adapting to at a slower rate.

Smaller role

As to how the US will stay engaged, Pedro Brinca, an associate professor of macroeconomics at Nova School of Business and Economics in Portugal, said Washington's approach is "repricing its security guarantee" for NATO, while playing its smaller role as a backstop, rather than a first responder.

But even if European allies can fulfill the commitment, turning increased defense budgets into meaningful military capability remains a much greater challenge. Although Europe has launched ambitious initiatives, including the European Union's ReArm Europe Plan and the Security Action for Europe financing mechanism, Brinca said industrial fragmentation continues to undermine efficiency.

"The money is now real. The capability is not yet, and that distinction is the whole story," he said, noting that European NATO members continue to operate different weapons platforms, limiting economies of scale.

Saz-Carranza cautioned that Europe building credible military capabilities of its own will take time.

"The EU is on the right track and should be able to build stronger defense capabilities," he said. "However, this will be a decades-long process, since higher spending will need time to translate into real military capacity."

According to Brinca, disagreements over the recent conflict with Iran and Washington's frustration with some European allies' reluctance to participate militarily have also exposed underlying strains within the alliance.