NATO summit puts fault lines in the spotlight

As leaders of the NATO military alliance gather in Ankara, Turkiye this week, it faces one of its most consequential summits in recent years, with questions over transatlantic unity, defense spending, support for Ukraine and Europe's growing security responsibilities expected to dominate the agenda.

The two-day summit, which runs until Wednesday, comes at a time of mounting geopolitical uncertainty. Growing divisions within NATO, differing positions on a range of issues, whether European allies will continue to align closely with the United States, and defense spending are all expected to remain key points of contention.

Just days ahead of the summit, US President Donald Trump has said it would be "ridiculous" for his country to maintain what he described as its "one-sided" approach to NATO, while his administration has announced plans to reduce some US military deployments in Europe.

The remarks have added to concerns that Washington is pushing Europe to take far greater responsibility for its own security.

Analysts like Janina Dill, professor of global security at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government, said the summit reflects a much broader shift in Europe's strategic landscape, and Europe faces a historic turning point.

"The system within which Europe has kept itself safe for the last 80 years is gone," she said. "The transatlantic alliance is no longer there for Europe to keep itself safe."

She said European countries must deepen their cooperation and significantly increase defense investment if they are to maintain strategic autonomy.

Angel Saz-Carranza, director of EsadeGeo Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics in Spain, added the alliance has adapted to the new political reality and faced challenges to hold still.

"The international community should watch whether allies can agree on a clearer division of responsibilities within NATO while keeping the US engaged in European security," he said.

During last year's NATO summit in The Hague, under pressure from the US, which shoulders over 60 percent of NATO expenditure, other states agreed to hike their defense budgets from an average of about 2 percent of national annual GDP to 5 percent, by 2035 — a commitment Spain has refused, and which some countries, including the United Kingdom, are adapting to at a slower rate.

As to how the US will keep engaged, Pedro Brinca, associate professor of macroeconomics at Nova School of Business and Economics in Portugal, said Washington's approach is "repricing its security guarantee" for NATO, while playing its smaller role as a backstop, rather than a first responder.

But even if European allies can fulfill the commitment, turning increased defense budgets into meaningful military capability remains a much greater challenge. Although Europe has launched ambitious initiatives, including the European Union's ReArm Europe Plan and the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) financing mechanism, Brinca said industrial fragmentation continues to undermine efficiency.

"The money is now real. The capability is not yet, and that distinction is the whole story," he said, noting that European NATO members continue to operate numerous different weapons platforms, limiting economies of scale.

Saz-Carranza likewise cautioned that Europe building credible military capabilities of its own will take time.

"The EU is on the right track and should be able to build stronger defense capabilities," he said. "However, this will be a decades-long process, since higher spending will need time to translate into real military capacity."

According to Brinca, disagreements over the recent conflict with Iran and Washington's frustration with some European allies' reluctance to participate militarily have also exposed underlying strains within the alliance.

"Whether the summit projects reassurance or papers over cracks matters," he said.

"The honest test of NATO's health is narrower: Does Article 5(NATO's collective defense clause requiring members to defend one another if attacked) remain credible?" asked Brinca. "I believe it does, for now."