Coming days will show if peace is near, or a renewed war awaits

The first direct US-Iran talks since the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding — which stipulated that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States would lift its naval blockade as an initial step — were always going to be judged less by the handshakes in Switzerland on the weekend than by what happens afterward.

That the two sides have agreed to The first direct US-Iran talks since the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding — which stipulated that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States would lift its naval blockade as an initial step — were always going to be judged less by the handshakes in Switzerland on the weekend than by what happens afterward. establish a high-level committee, create working groups on nuclear issues and sanctions, launch technical negotiations, and adopt a 60-day road map toward a final agreement is an encouraging sign. Just as importantly, they have opened communication channels to prevent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and created mechanisms to support a ceasefire in Lebanon.

But the real question is whether the peace the US and Iran seek can survive Israel's belief that its agenda remains unfinished. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli military operations had created conditions for the eventual fall of Iran, while pledging to maintain security zones in Lebanon and Gaza for as long as necessary. "In the United States, they say that President Trump does everything that I ask him to do. And in Israel, they say that I do everything he wants me to do. Well, neither is true," the Israeli leader said while addressing a policy forum.

In Switzerland, the US Vice-President JD Vance openly described Israel's reaction as a "freakout" and argued that "you can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem". He urged critics to "wake up and smell the reality".

The current US administration has already provided Israel with levels of military, diplomatic and political support that previous administrations would have balked to extend. But Washington finally appears convinced that it should call time on giving Tel Aviv a free rein.

From Israel's perspective, an agreement that leaves Iran's state system intact, allows Tehran to rebuild regional influence and does not permanently eliminate Hezbollah, Hamas or Iran's missile capabilities can hardly be regarded as a strategic victory. That is why Israel insists on retaining influence in southern Lebanon and maintaining operations in Gaza. Should it eventually be pressured to scale back its military footprint there, the gains from more than two and a half years of conflict could turn out to be surprisingly meager.

That also explains why many observers see what Washington is pursuing as an "off-ramp" rather than a comprehensive settlement, claiming that the US merely wants to stabilize shipping through Hormuz, lower energy prices and reduce domestic political headaches.

Should the negotiations in Switzerland mark the beginning of a US disengagement from an increasingly complicated conflict, the Middle East might quickly return to familiar patterns. Iran and Israel would resume their rivalry through proxies or direct confrontation. Lebanon would remain fragile. The Palestinian question would remain unresolved.

That is why the current talks represent a test for the US. Can Washington persuade its closest regional partner that military pressure alone cannot guarantee security? Can it ensure that ceasefire arrangements evolve into a durable political framework rather than a temporary tactical truce? Can it restrain all parties, including Israel, from returning to the logic of escalation? It was the US' reckless endorsement of joint strikes with Israel on Iran in February that has landed Washington in its current predicament — burdened both morally and materially.

China has consistently argued that force is not a solution and that dialogue on the basis of equality remains the only viable path forward. Beijing supports efforts to consolidate the ceasefire momentum, while continuing diplomatic engagement with all relevant parties and advocating a shared vision of security for the Gulf region and the wider Middle East.

The coming days will reveal whether the Middle East is genuinely moving toward peace, or merely preparing for the next chapter of an unfinished war.

— LI YANG, CHINA DAILY