SpaceX IPO underscores growing politicization of global tech investment

SpaceX's blockbuster initial public offering has grabbed attention worldwide not only for its unprecedented size, but also for what it implies for the commercial aerospace industry and the escalating politicization of the technological innovation that it underscores.

SpaceX saw its price spike 19 percent on its Nasdaq debut even as the $75 billion IPO became the world's biggest ever. The stock closed at $160.95, buoying the company's market cap to $2.1 trillion. The company's founder, Elon Musk, thus became the world's first trillionaire with his personal wealth surging to $1.1 trillion, according to Forbes.

SpaceX said in its prospectus that the proceeds from the IPO will be used to expand its artificial intelligence business and fund its launch infrastructure and satellite constellations.

Shen Meng, director of Chanson & Co, a boutique investment bank, said that SpaceX will leverage the IPO to further integrate its capabilities in reusable satellite launches, global low-orbit satellite communication networks, and AI synergies, thereby building even more prominent competitive advantages.

SpaceX managed to achieve a total turnover of $18.7 billion last year, up from $14 billion in 2024. However, its losses soared to $4.94 billion in 2025, with a cumulative total loss of $41.3 billion since it was founded in 2002.

Market experts expressed concerns over the market frenzy over SpaceX.

Financial intelligence company CFRA gave a sell rating for the company and a $115 price target — roughly 15 percent lower than the IPO price. It said that profits generated by Starlink, the satellite internet company, are being devoured by the other two major business units of xAI and Starship, while its AI business lacks differentiated competitiveness.

Investment research company Morningstar valued the company at less than half the IPO price. Danish pension operator Akademiker Pension said it will not take a chance on SpaceX because it is "grossly valued" and has a "catastrophic governance structure" — referring to Musk's 85 percent voting rights. 

However, the mega IPO has attracted $250 billion in subscriptions from investors worldwide.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, said that this will likely create a significant liquidity vacuum. To absorb that amount of supply, investors — both institutional and retail — may have to sell existing holdings to free cash for SpaceX allocations. This could partly explain the recent sell-off across chipmakers, she said.

"The company could eventually be valued less as a space company and more as a next-generation AI infrastructure giant. In that case, its name will continue to reflect the dream of a faraway future," said Ozkardeskaya.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has directed its underwriters to reject orders from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong for its IPO, citing US International Traffic in Arms Regulations for national security reasons.

Dai Guanchun, a senior capital markets lawyer based in Beijing, said that this reflects excessive politicization of technological exchanges by the United States, disrupting the normal flow of international capital. But Chinese companies should not be conservative but rather seek more cooperation in other markets in such a global context, he said.

Liu Chunsheng, an associate professor of international economics at the Central University of Finance and Economics, considered this a typical case of capital decoupling in cutting-edge technology sectors driven by geopolitical competition.

In the short term, this could lead to higher fundraising costs and fewer opportunities in commercial operations for US companies, as they will receive less Asian capital. If sustained for a longer term, it could impair global capital supply, constraining the R&D expansion of capital-heavy aerospace projects, he said.

However, SpaceX's IPO will provide a crucial valuation benchmark for commercial space firms globally, especially those in China, said Li Chao, an independent analyst who has been closely following the global commercial aerospace industry for more than eight years.

Zhou Lanxu contributed to
this story.