Tensions, tariffs squeeze consumers, farm exports

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continuing uncertainty over United States trade policy are increasingly affecting consumers and agricultural markets, experts said at a recent media briefing at the Port of Los Angeles.

The briefing, attended by the port's Executive Director Gene Seroka and Jerrold D. Green, a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations, focused on how conflict, disruption to shipping routes and unpredictable tariff measures are creating new pressures far beyond ports and cargo terminals.

Green said instability in the Middle East is no longer a regional issue, but one with broad political and economic consequences worldwide.

"The economic consequences of this will have profound political consequences," he said. "There's no certainty … it's very, very hard."

While businesses had briefly welcomed signs of relief after a US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed the global economy back into what Green described as "a land of uncertainty", making long-term planning difficult for companies, investors and consumers alike.

For households, that uncertainty is already showing up in higher prices. Seroka said inflation may have slowed from previous peaks, but the cost of many essentials remains elevated.

According to research cited at the briefing, coffee prices increased over 10 percent from a year earlier. Furniture, footwear, bananas and chocolate have also risen by double digits, as they rely heavily on international supply chains and imports. Healthcare, education and grocery bills also remain under pressure.

"While some experts have said inflation kind of goes away, well, the prices are still elevated," Seroka said.

Rising fuel and energy costs are becoming a daily concern for residents and workers across Southern California, he said.

"It's front of mind for everybody — from the line in the grocery store, to getting a cup of coffee this morning in town," he said, noting that diesel prices in Los Angeles have climbed above $7 per gallon ($1.85 per liter).

That surge is hitting truckers particularly hard. More than half of the roughly 1,100 licensed truckers serving the Port of Los Angeles complex are small businesses with five trucks or fewer, making them especially vulnerable to sustained fuel price shocks.

Beyond consumer prices, speakers said geopolitical and trade tensions are also reshaping agricultural commerce, particularly trade between the US and China.

Seroka said China has diversified its sourcing, with soybeans increasingly supplied by Brazil and Argentina under longer-term contracts.

California agricultural exports such as almonds, walnuts and pistachios are also facing stronger competition in overseas markets, he said. "Almonds are moving out of Australia … we're feeling the brunt of these policies."

Deeply interconnected

From a broader perspective, Green said the global economy remains deeply interconnected, and that attempts to view national economies in isolation can backfire.

"We're not an autarky," he said."We are inextricably linked to our trading partners, our allies and our friends in every dimension."

Even if one country performs better in the short term, weakness among major partners eventually feeds back through trade, investment and supply chains, he added.

"To think about the national economy … and not think more broadly about the global economy, can create problems all their own," he said, adding that economic imbalances among key partners tend to "come back and bite us".

Green also highlighted the impact on travel and services, saying major aviation hubs such as Dubai serve as essential connectors between Europe, South Asia and Africa.

Any renewed disruption there would affect not only freight but also the movement of people for business, tourism and family ties, he said. "This really is an important part of the world, and the implications are global. Everything is being touched by this."