Experts call for stable Sino-US trade ties

China and the United States have ample scope to deepen business ties, as economists and business leaders urged both sides, particularly Washington, to provide a more stable and predictable policy environment to support normal commercial cooperation.

In line with a broader shift in trade structure and increased demand from emerging markets and regional partners, China's trade with the US decreased by 16.6 percent year-on-year to $128.68 billion in the first quarter of the year. At the same time, trade with the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased by 17.6 percent and 18.4 percent, respectively, in US dollar terms, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

Li Wei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said that the sharp drop in China-US trade during the January-March period reflects the challenges facing bilateral economic relations, as Washington's increasing use of national security grounds and restrictive measures against China disrupts normal trade flows and adds uncertainty to global markets.

The Ministry of Commerce has repeatedly said that the country is open to strengthening its trade ties with the US. However, it has also warned that unilateral measures and policy uncertainties have had a negative impact on bilateral trade flows. The ministry has called for a more stable and predictable policy environment to boost business confidence.

Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, said that efforts are needed to address national security concerns to make bilateral trade more resilient and healthy. "We should rationalize security concerns and make it the right size, not over-blow it," he said, stressing that China and the US are not only the world's two largest economies but also the two largest consumer markets, with the dual status giving them an outsized role to play in shaping global trends, research and development and supply chains.

Beyond bilateral dynamics, Robert Koopman, former WTO chief economist, said that trade policy is not the main driver of global trade growth. "Tariffs and related measures account for only a part of trade dynamics, while broader factors such as technological change and innovation play a far more significant role," he said.

Lynn Song, chief economist for China at Dutch bank ING, said the drag from the US is expected to ease, and external demand for Chinese products will remain an important driver of growth this year, unless new tariff shocks emerge.

Adding further detail, Louise Loo, head of Asia Economics at the British think tank Oxford Economics, said that China's shipments to ASEAN countries, South Korea and India have outpaced last year's average pace, while exports to the EU, the US and Canada have also picked up sequentially, despite remaining below year-earlier levels for the US.

She added that since Washington first announced tariff measures against China in February last year, exports to the US have declined, but the shortfall has been more than offset by rising trade flows to ASEAN and Northeast Asia.

This shift underscores a broader rebalancing of China's trade flows toward regional partners, as supply chains and demand patterns continue to evolve across Asia.

Despite the deterioration in China-Japan ties since last November, two-way trade grew by 17.8 percent year-on-year to $85.19 billion between January and March, customs data showed, indicating the resilience of economic ties and the strong complementarity between the two countries.

Chen Zilei, a professor of Japanese studies at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, said that amid strained China-Japan economic ties, Tokyo should recognize the importance of bilateral trade with China to its own economic growth and long-term industrial competitiveness.

This view is reflected in business sentiment. A survey released by the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China in February shows that despite geopolitical tensions, about 59 percent of member firms plan to increase or maintain their investment levels in China this year, a 3-percentage-point increase from the previous survey.

Stephen Ma, chairman for China at Japan's Nissan Motor, said that China's vast market and expanding domestic demand are unlocking opportunities for the auto industry. This reflects broader market maturation, efficiency gains and stronger investment confidence. The Japanese automaker's sales reached 653,000 units in China last year, with sales rising 4.5 percent year-on-year in the second half.

zhongnan@chinadaily.com.cn