China's AI core industry to hit 12.6t yuan by 2030, reshaping global competition

The market size of core industries for smart economy, or core industries powered by artificial intelligence, is projected to reach 12.6 trillion yuan ($1.83 trillion) by 2030, accounting for 25.1 percent of the country's digital economy revenue, according to a forecast released by a research institute affiliated with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The report released by the China Center for Information Industry Development at a forum in Beijing on Thursday showed that from 2023 to 2025, revenue in China's AI core sector surged from 2.0 trillion yuan to 4.77 trillion yuan, posting a compound annual growth rate of 54.1 percent.

In 2025, the core AI sector contributed 13.7 percent of total digital industry revenue.

By 2035, the market size of core industries for smart economy is expected to reach 29.6 trillion yuan, representing 47.7 percent of digital revenue, CCID said.

Speaking at the same forum, Wang Yiming, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said AI has become a new frontier in major-power competition. He noted that US containment efforts have, in turn, spurred China to achieve fresh breakthroughs in the field.

Wang highlighted that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), traditional industries face a new opportunity to shift from comparative advantage to comprehensive competitive advantage.

He pointed to the country's emerging advantages — a massive market, a complete industrial chain, abundant talent in digital and smart technologies, and strengths in new energy — that together form a new composite competitive edge.

"This will enable China's traditional industries to move up to the mid-to-high end of the global value chain," Wang said.

On talent, Wang noted that China now has 250 million people with higher education, and the number of engineering graduates each year equals the total of all developed countries combined.

"Talent and human capital are the most proactive conditions — no other country can sanction that. This is also our most proactive advantage in developing new quality productive forces," he said.

Regarding the widespread application of intelligent robots, Wang warned that the underlying logic of the division of labor between advanced economies and emerging markets is changing.

"If everyone is using intelligent robots, we must think about how to seize the initiative and accelerate digital transformation," he added.