New agenda setters

Developing nations are stepping up to the plate to reshape global climate governance

At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Belém, Brazil in November 2025, under the active promotion of China, a structured vision of a just transition mechanism was proposed, reshaping the balance of negotiations on climate responsibility and financial commit-ments. This event not only signified a strategic evolution in the negotiation tactics of developing nations but also reflected a historic shift in global climate governance: developing countries are transitioning from long-standing “rule acceptors” to active “agenda participants” and even “co-setters” of rules. This transformation is underpinned by deepening South-South cooperation and a core demand to balance developmental rights with climate responsibilities, steering global governance toward a more equitable and inclusive future.

For a long time, global climate governance rule-making has been dominated by developed countries, while the development rights of developing countries have been marginalized, trapped in the dual predicament of rule imbalance and resource scarcity. The Kyoto Protocol established the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, mandating developed and transition economies to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by at least 5 percent during 2008-12 and by at least 18 percent during 2013-20. However, the framework of rules set by developed countries, passively accepted by developing nations, remained unchanged. The withdrawal or weakening of commitments by some developed nations has further diluted the protocol’s effectiveness.

Moreover, the long-promised climate financing and technology transfer from developed countries have been insufficient. According to the OECD’s 2024 report, the total climate financing provided by developed nations reached $115.9 billion in 2022, nominally meeting the $100 billion annual commitment, albeit two years late. Data from the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing show that between 2016 and 2022, developed countries mobilized an average of only $82.7 billion annually, primarily in loans, with grants constituting less than 30 percent, and funds for the least developed countries comprising only 21 percent.

The funding gap remains stark. The UN estimates indicate that annual climate loss and damage in developing countries amounts to $1.2 trillion. The UN Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report 2025 reveals that current annual adaptation costs for developing nations are around $70 billion, with existing international public adaptation funding covering less than 10 percent.

Facing shared challenges, developing countries are leveraging South-South cooperation to build consensus, transitioning from being passive responders to proactive actors.

First, shared vulnerabilities have driven joint action. The similar climate vulnerabilities among developing nations have fostered a consensus for action. The Alliance of Small Island States has garnered collective support from the G77, becoming a central lever for governance change. At COP27 in 2022, developing countries successfully pushed for the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund, which was formally launched at COP28 in 2023, with commitments of $100 million each from the United Arab Emirates and Germany, 40 million pounds ($54 million) from the United Kingdom and $17.5 million from the United States. The fund’s establishment marks the first institutional response to the collective demands of developing nations.

Second, emerging economies such as China are transforming South-South cooperation from a concept into tangible outcomes. By early 2025, China, through the Belt and Road Initiative International Green Development Coalition, had implemented hundreds of clean energy projects across Africa and Southeast Asia. According to the International Energy Agency, China supplies over 80 percent of the world’s photovoltaic components and more than 70 percent of wind power equipment. Over the past decade, the global cost of wind and solar power has dropped by over 60 percent and 80 percent, respectively, largely due to China’s technological innovations and large-scale manufacturing, significantly lowering the transition threshold for developing countries.

Third, proactive proposals for agenda breakthroughs. At COP28 in 2023, the “G77+China” successfully pushed for the inclusion of a just transition pathway in the conference outcomes, emphasizing the need to respect different development stages and energy security needs. In the same year, the inaugural Africa Climate Summit adopted the Nairobi Declaration, which clarified the concept of “climate debt” and set a goal to increase Africa’s renewable energy capacity to 300 gigawatts by 2030, demonstrating the proactive planning stance of developing nations.

Despite these breakthroughs, developing countries face several constraints in setting the climate agenda.

First, the diverse development stages of developing countries complicate internal coordination. Emerging economies focus more on industrial upgrading and energy security during transitions, while the least developed countries and small island states prioritize adaptation funding and loss compensation. These differing priorities increase coordination costs and provide developed countries opportunities to exploit these differences.

Second, developed countries continue to obstruct the agenda progress through financial evasion and mechanism hindrance. Despite the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund, financial commitments remain low and slow to materialize. The US, as the largest historical emitter, pledged only $17.5 million, far below its responsibility. In January, the US announced its withdrawal from several UN climate-related entities, exacerbating governance uncertainties.

Third, the structural contradiction of the funding gap is prominent. According to the UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2025, the annual adaptation cost for developing countries is estimated to be about $70 billion by 2025, rising to $140-300 billion by 2030. However, international public adaptation funding to developing countries was only $26 billion in 2023, leaving a gap of over 80 percent. Since 2025, several Western countries have reduced climate aid, further exacerbating funding uncertainties.

To address these challenges, developing countries need to implement systematic strategies to transition from agenda setting to rule-making.

First, multilateral coordination mechanisms should be strengthened. The “G77+China” should enhance regular consultation mechanisms to coordinate positions and build consensus before key negotiations. Establishing a permanent technical support team that considers the core demands of countries at different development stages, while strengthening links with relevant UN agencies, can help garner broad international support.

Second, innovative climate financing tools are needed. Developing countries should advocate for the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights to be directed toward climate financing. Directing some of these resources through multilateral development banks could enhance the accessibility of funds for developing nations. Encouraging the issuance of local currency-denominated climate bonds is also vital. According to the People’s Bank of China, by the end of 2022, China’s green loan balance was 22.03 trillion yuan ($3.2 trillion), and its green bond balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, making it the world’s largest green credit market. These experiences could be promoted.

Third, through the BRI International Green Development Coalition, a mechanism for South-South transfer of photovoltaic and energy storage technologies should be established, alongside a platform for technology sharing. Joint research, capacity cooperation and talent development can help developing countries establish localized clean energy industries, bolstering the technological and industrial confidence needed for rule-making.

The shift of developing countries from “followers” to “agenda setters” is crucial for global climate justice and will propel global governance toward a fairer and more inclusive direction. Developing countries are demonstrating through collective action that only governance systems that respect developmental rights and uphold shared responsibilities can truly address the global challenge of climate change.

The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.