Navigating turbulence toward stable Sino-US ties

Over the past year, Washington's tariff war has failed to achieve its intended goals. It has neither compelled China to concede nor taken bilateral relations in the direction desired by the United States. Instead, China has withstood maximum pressure and navigated ties into a more measured diplomatic rhythm in 2026, centered around several potential head-of-state engagements. By standing up to US bullying, China has demonstrated both resolve and composure. This confidence underpins the vision outlined in the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30): "foster a new type of international relations" and "maintain overall stability in major-country relations".

Although there has been a significant thaw in Sino-US relations, powerful undercurrents remain. Despite the softened rhetoric on China in the 2025 US National Security Strategy, increasing public support for cooperative engagement, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's comment that "the relationship between the United States and China has never been better", Beijing's thermometer reads much colder. Technological and financial challenges from the US continue to require vigilance.

China's US policy has consistently pursued a win-win cooperation approach, but Washington's longstanding posture toward Beijing has been competition and zero-sum gaming. From the Barack Obama administration's efforts to exclude China from shaping global trade rules to the Donald Trump administration's push to prevent China from setting semiconductor standards and locking down its industry chains, it is clear that technological rivalry is now central to Washington's China policy.

During Trump's second term, the tech-industrial complex has replaced the military-industrial complex. Semiconductor and artificial intelligence companies and capital are in the spotlight, forming the so-called "digital-military complex". Initiatives such as America's AI Action Plan and the "Genesis Mission" are aimed at global technological dominance, with AI as the main battlefield, involving finance, capital, talent, and education in the competition with China.

Particularly concerning is the so-called PROTECT Taiwan Act, passed by the US House of Representatives on Feb 9. The bill proposes excluding China from six key global financial institutions, including the G20, the Bank for International Settlements, and the Financial Stability Board if there is what Washington defines as a "threat" in the Taiwan Strait. It shows that China hawks are laying the legal and public groundwork to weaponize the global financial system. For China, this poses a severe challenge with far-reaching implications.

Moreover, many of Washington's external moves are de facto aimed at constraining China. By monopolizing resources in the Western Hemisphere and tightening control over global energy channels, the US is trying to elbow China out. On tariffs, technology, industry and supply chains, the US is coaxing and coercing countries into forming exclusive clubs targeting China.

Beijing's stance has been markedly different: non-confrontation, constructive engagement, and long-term patience. The US president's signature transactional style seeks to provoke overreaction, but China has maintained strategic composure. It has chosen to reinforce its own industrial resilience and technological autonomy, while promoting a more diverse and decentralized global resource and infrastructure network through the Belt and Road Initiative. In AI governance, China continues to advocate ethical standards and global cooperation, emphasizing technology for the public good.

The US president has repeatedly "triumphed" in his overseas operations since returning to the White House, significantly disrupting the international order and global governance. This year's Munich Security Report describes this approach as "wrecking-ball politics". Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has voiced deep concern over "the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must". Amid this turbulence, China has taken on the responsibility of standing up to hegemonism and preventing the world from reverting to the law of the jungle.

Washington has been the source of turbulence, as evidenced by the lengthy list of victims of power politics and unilateral bullying. Cracks have emerged in transatlantic relations. Polls show that more countries lack confidence in the US properly handling international affairs. Recently, a succession of leaders from the US allies visited Beijing, an indication that middle powers view China as a stabilizing anchor against US-induced risks in a disordered world.

A recent survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in 21 countries found that the "America First" policy had, ironically, enhanced China's global influence. Even at its peak, Washington could not dictate "who thrives and who perishes". As its hegemony recedes, more countries are realizing that even under US pressure, aligning with Washington is not necessary.

In a world where established norms are being eroded, restoring order requires joint efforts from major players such as China, Russia and Europe. Washington's relentless undermining of the existing international system contrasts with the soundness and viability of China's four global initiatives.

China's approach is rooted in the shared interests of humanity. By strengthening platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China has helped ease the security and economic anxieties of developing countries and provided a buffer against US-induced shocks. It has also expanded institutional opening-up, contributed to the stability of global industry and supply chains, and countered protectionism, trade wars and economic fragmentation.

Trump has repeatedly suggested that China and the US could work together to solve many problems in the world, and that they can make more progress in bilateral ties. Such pragmatism deserves broader support in US society and should be translated into action. As Beijing has emphasized, if both sides earnestly follow the strategic guidance provided by their leaders, lengthening the list of cooperation and shortening the list of problems, many complex issues can be resolved through dialogue.

This could make 2026 a year when Beijing and Washington move toward peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation to build a new type of international relations. China has always believed that by steadily building mutual trust, the two countries can find a way to get along with each other.

The author is a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a professor at the University of International Relations.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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