Conflict threatens global shipping and energy markets

The escalating tensions in the Middle East are beginning to ripple through global shipping lanes and energy markets, raising concerns over supply disruptions, higher transport costs, and renewed inflationary pressure on the global economy.

Analysts said the crisis has already pushed oil prices higher and triggered early signs of strain across the global logistics, even though the full economic impact has yet to materialize.

Geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz - a vital maritime corridor for global energy trade – have already driven prices upward.

Emma Richards, associate director of oil and gas at BMI, a research firm and subsidiary of credit rating company Fitch Solutions, said the strait carries roughly 25 percent of global seaborne oil trade and about 20 percent of liquefied natural gas.

Although it is likely the conflict will be short lived, she warned that prolonged disruptions could trigger far sharper price increases. In serious scenarios such as a full blockade of the strait, oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel, she said.

Fuel markets are also tightening. Middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel were already in short supply, and the Middle East remains a key exporter of both.

“We are seeing multiple pressure points across the energy system,” Richards said. “Those pressures can compound and push prices higher if supply disruptions continues.”

While the Strait of Hormuz is primarily an energy corridor, the conflict is also beginning to affect wider shipping networks.

Chiedza Madzima, senior director, head of operational risk at BMI, said the waterway directly accounts for fewer than 5 percent of the global container fleet, although some industry estimates put the impact closer to 10 percent when indirect effects are included.

Freight rates have not yet fully reflected the risks, but many carriers are already imposing surcharges of around $1,500 per seven-meter container for cargo heading to the Middle East.

“In the tanker market, we have already seen a 300 percent spike in charter rates with capacities even more constrained,” Madzima said.

Several major shipping companies have begun suspending routes through the region or rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of kilometers to voyages between Asia and Europe.

She said the diversions increase fuel consumption, extend delivery times, and reduce global shipping capacity.

“For energy flows, the pipeline bypass options exist, but they can only cover a small fraction of rerouting capacity, and these assets are also at risk of attacks,” Madzima said.

The situation is further complicated by security risks in other maritime corridors. As tensions intensify in Gulf, Yemen’s Houthi forces have signaled renewed attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, another major shipping route connecting Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal.

With two high-risk maritime zones emerging simultaneously, she said, insurers and shipping firms are increasingly reluctant to send vessels through these regions.

Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, warned that the economic impact could extend well beyond energy markets.

“This isn’t just about oil prices,” he said. “Higher transport costs and supply disruptions could raise the price of goods globally.”