Highs and lows mark China-US ties in 2025

Measure of recovery

For Hufbauer, the reduction of tariffs, despite remaining high at 30 to 40 percent, resumption of agricultural trade, and meetings of Xi and Trump were all clear signs of progress.

"I don't think that anti-China rhetoric will pay off for either party in the US November elections. The biggest risk is some sort of military flare-up, but I think that is unlikely. Trade relations should modestly improve," he said.

Chas Freeman, former assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said that 2025 began with "a severe collapse in our relationship", as the Trump administration escalated protectionist trade measures — both tariffs and sanctions.

Many China hard-liners in Washington lack real knowledge of China, and they cling to preconceived notions, projecting motives and vulnerabilities onto Beijing that are not borne out by facts, Freeman said.

The year 2025 was closing with a measure of recovery from that low point, and for now, the US-China relationship appears to be relatively stable, heading into the new year, he pointed out.

Freeman said this is a period of calm, when both sides should think seriously about how to use any future meeting to perpetuate the relative stabilization of the relationship that was achieved in Busan.