The US in 2025: a year of deep divisions

The year 2025 has only a few days left, yet the United States has already begun to tally the costs of one of the most difficult and divided years in recent history.

The federal government experienced a record 43-day shutdown from Oct 1 to Nov 12.

The high-profile Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, launched on US President Donald Trump's inauguration day amid promises of trillions in savings, was quietly dissolved in November. Most of the office's functions, according to reports, have been absorbed by the Office of Personnel Management, the federal government's human resources agency.

The lingering effects of DOGE's cuts continue to surface: At the end of November, agencies report an additional nearly $300 million in terminated contracts, while critics highlight opaque accounting and a large number of deaths from slashed foreign aid programs.

Protests that began in Los Angeles in June contributed to a broader wave that, by mid-2025, had pushed the cumulative share of protest-hosting counties above 60 percent, according to Harvard researchers.

A Pew Research Center survey in July found that 80 percent of US adults say Republican and Democratic voters not only disagree on plans and policies, but also cannot agree on basic facts, a level comparable to the highest in recent tracking history.

Anthony Moretti, an associate professor in communications at Robert Morris University, described the overall state of US society and politics in 2025 as "unsettled".

Immigration enforcement this year, for example, is characterized by ambitious goals and an overwhelmed system.

The US administration moved with unusual speed on immigration. By the end of December, travel bans had been extended to citizens of 39 countries.

In September, the registration fee for H-1B skilled-worker visas surged to $100,000 per application, a massive jump from previous costs. The Congress approved a massive reconciliation bill providing approximately $170 billion over four years for border security, immigration enforcement, and deportation operations, the largest such funding infusion in US history.

The consequences quickly outpaced the system's ability to manage them. In early October, the quarterly report from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services data for FY2025 Q3 (April-June) showed the net backlog surging to about 5.4 million cases.

The Visa Bulletin for December 2025 advanced final action dates modestly for employment-based categories but warned of potential regression in early 2026 due to surging demand.

Moretti said the increased enforcement measures, such as raids and processing pauses, "defy common sense". He argued that the US has historically been built on a philosophy of open doors, welcoming people in need of humanitarian assistance.

"None of this seems to make sense if you look at past practice," he said, adding the policies appear to target specific countries or regions, creating "an unforced error".

On the backlog, Moretti said longer processing times raise questions of safety and feasibility for migrants. "The longer it takes, the more they face dangerous living conditions or the prospect of being returned," he said.

He described the situation as having "knock-on effects", where potential immigrants may decide not to take the risk, seeing little welcome or safety. "If that's the strategy the White House wants, that seems particularly cruel and particularly un-American," Moretti said.

The American Immigration Council, a nonpartisan advocacy organization, warned in a November 2025 blog post that the US administration's "new mass deportation playbook" is deploying federal agents to terrorize community members, creating widespread fear and humanitarian challenges not seen in recent years, while overwhelming administrative capacity through expanded enforcement.

The post emphasized that these policies are erecting new barriers to legal immigration and exacerbating distress for vulnerable populations.

In a September 2025 fact-check from The Connecticut Mirror, citing data from Syracuse University's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, the overall immigration court backlog had reached nearly 3.8 million active cases as of the third quarter of 2025, with a significant share involving asylum seekers waiting years for hearings, leading to prolonged uncertainty and increased strain on border and humanitarian resources.

Enforcement flashpoints

Enforcement operations themselves became flashpoints. Throughout the fiscal year 2025, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement significantly expanded its enforcement efforts, with daily arrests averaging over 800 in recent months, roughly double to triple the levels seen in 2021-24.

By the end of September 2025, immigration judges issued a record nearly 500,000 removal orders, including voluntary departures, representing a sharp increase of about 57 percent over the previous fiscal year.

On Dec 3, the US administration paused all green card, citizenship, and asylum processing for applicants from 19 banned countries. This halt has drawn sharp criticism from immigrant rights groups, including warnings of potential humanitarian disruptions and widespread delays for affected individuals.

Legal pushbacks against the administration's immigration enforcement expansions were swift throughout 2025.

On Nov 22, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit denied the government's request to reinstate its expanded expedited removal policy, upholding a lower court injunction that found the procedures violated due process protections. This decision effectively froze a key initiative aimed at accelerating deportations for certain migrants.

In a related ruling earlier this year, on May 30, the Supreme Court allowed the administration to temporarily pause a humanitarian parole program that had permitted nearly half a million migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to enter the US, signaling potential escalation in enforcement while leaving thousands in limbo pending full resolution.

In mid-November 2025, a high-profile immigration enforcement operation in Charlotte, North Carolina, attracted national attention.

This included incidents where masked federal agents briefly entered the grounds of the prestigious Myers Park Country Club without prior permission, detaining an employee who was later released after presenting valid documentation.

Local Republican officials, generally supportive of strict enforcement, expressed concern over the optics and execution of these raids. Former governor Pat McCrory warned that the "apparent disjointed implementation of arrest" could erode public support for immigration policies, even among those favoring stronger borders.

Similar enforcement actions were seen across multiple US cities in 2025, including Home Depot parking lots in Phoenix, Arizona, in late October and early November; and residential neighborhoods in Los Angeles, California, throughout June.

Various locations in Austin, Texas, in mid-June — drew condemnations, small-scale protests, and candlelight vigils.

Community leaders in these areas reported heightened fear among immigrant families, with workers avoiding job sites and residents limiting public activities due to the raids.

US citizens expressed their anger during the "No Kings" protest movement, which began in June as demonstrations against workplace raids in Los Angeles and grew into the largest sustained protest since 2020.

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project documented more than 2,800 protests between June and November, occurring in 60 percent of all US counties.

The peak came on Oct 18, when organizers and independent monitors estimated between 5 and over 7 million participants nationwide.

In late November, the movement launched a Thanksgiving boycott of retailers like Amazon and Home Depot, who were accused of enabling ICE actions, drawing thousands in coordinated actions through Cyber Monday.

The immigration debate did not occur in isolation. It unfolded against the backdrop of partisan polarization, which, according to most analysts, reached levels unparalleled in modern political history.

Partisan polarization has left Congress unable to carry out even basic legislative tasks and has deeply divided the US public.

Jack Midgley, principal of global consultancy Midgley & Co and an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University, said that polarization escalated in 2025.

"Most polls show that the US has grown more polarized this year, but also that the public feels less polarized than political leaders are," he told China Daily. He pointed to the increasing role of large single-issue donors as a key driver.

Opposing rhetoric

Consulting company Gallup's annual ideology survey, updated in January, found that only 34 percent of US citizens now identify as political moderates.

Seventy-seven percent of Republicans described themselves as conservative or very conservative; fifty-five percent of Democrats identified as liberal or very liberal.

Pew data from late November and early December reinforces this, with 82 percent of respondents now viewing the opposing party as a "threat to the nation's well-being", up from 78 percent in September.

The Pew Research Center's July report went beyond ideology to measure perceptions of reality.

Eighty percent of respondents agreed that members of the opposing party "not only disagree on plans and policies but cannot agree on basic facts".

It was followed by another October report claiming 53 percent see left-wing extremism and 52 percent right-wing extremism as major problems causing violence.

Midgley said polarization has affected the Congress' ability to pass basic legislation more than ideology alone. "Congress' inability to pass important legislation has less to do with polarization than with the outsized role played by megadonors tied to individual issues or business interests," he said.

Legislators advocate for donor positions and are less willing to compromise, even within their own parties, he added.

The public blame for the resulting shutdown was distributed almost equally along party lines.

A Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll conducted in October showed US citizens blaming Republicans 50 percent to Democrats 43 percent.

Among independents, 41 percent said "both parties share the blame equally", according to an earlier PBS/NPR/Marist poll.

A November Gallup survey showed that 80 percent of US citizens endorse that political leaders should compromise with the other party to get things done.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies, said the 43-day shutdown has revealed deep distrust between parties.

"There has been such a breakdown in trust and polarization over the last 20 to 25 years that has made governance harder," he told China Daily.

The addition of a polarizing president has only worsened it, he said.

Surging protests

Polarization also fueled a surge in protests, as research from Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship showed that local news, which is less partisan than national outlets, continues to struggle to bridge gaps between red and blue counties.

Gupta pointed to recent gun incidents as further signs of societal strain amid deepening polarization.

"These sorts of erratic instances are just going to get more and more," he said, warning that political violence is rising as politicians fan the flames.

In November, the Brookings Institution's analysis of No Kings participants revealed 26 percent left-leaning support for political violence (up 9 percent year-over-year) versus 17 percent right-leaning (down 12 percent), highlighting emotional divides amid the ongoing Affordable Care Act debates.

The record-setting 43-day shutdown caused damage. The shutdown began on Oct 1, when fiscal year 2025 funding expired without new appropriations.

It ended on the evening of Nov 12, when Trump signed a clean continuing resolution that extended funding at 2025 levels until Jan 30.

The Congressional Budget Office issued a formal estimate during the closure. In October, the office's figures showed a permanent loss of $11 billion.

The December Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed a 0.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, attributing part of the rise to shutdown distortions.

An update also noted that permanent distortions in labor data may impact 2026 fiscal forecasts.

Human costs were equally stark. Approximately 670,000 civilian federal employees were furloughed without pay for the full 43 days.

Another 730,000 "exempt" federal employees, who were required to work during the shutdown, received no income while working for the six weeks.

Active-duty military personnel continued to work but faced the real prospect of missing their Nov 15 paycheck if the shutdown had lasted two more days.

In December, unemployment in Washington, DC, remained above the national average of 4.6 percent, according to data from the Office of Revenue Analysis.

Short-lived initiative

The short and controversial life of the Department of Government Efficiency epitomizes the political chaos that defined the country in 2025.

It was created by an executive order on Jan 20 — inauguration day, granting extraordinary authority to recommend agency mergers, mass terminations, and regulatory repeals. Its stated target was to reduce federal spending by $1 trillion over 10 years.

Over its 10-month existence, DOGE oversaw "savings" totaling $214 billion, primarily from the Department of Education, Department of Health and Human Services, and the Environmental Protection Agency, while its own operations have reportedly generated at least $21.7 billion in waste across the federal government.

Independent analysis by Yale University and the University of Pennsylvania estimated that reductions in Medicaid, food assistance and public health programs contributed to 51,000 excess deaths that would not have occurred under previous funding levels.

In late November, agencies terminated an additional $289 million in contracts following DOGE guidance, but critics noted the savings fell short of targets amid opaque accounting.

As of Dec 12, reports from the Office of Personnel Management indicate that DOGE-inspired cuts have institutionalized $500 million in annual efficiency gains.

On Nov 23, 11 days after the shutdown ended, the White House announced that DOGE was being dissolved.

OPM Director Scott Kupor told reporters that afternoon: "The entity no longer exists. Remaining functions have been returned to their originating agencies."

The federal hiring freeze imposed in January was lifted the same week.

By Dec 1, White House officials clarified that DOGE's principles persist through embedded staff in agencies, with $140 million in recent savings from 15 terminated contracts. The short-lived experiment thus ended, leaving the question: Did the pursuit of efficiency ultimately prove efficient?

So, what ends and what remains as 2026 approaches?

The immediate crises of 2025 have formally ended. Federal offices are open again. DOGE has been disbanded. The largest waves of protests have subsided with the arrival of winter weather.

Moretti, Gupta and Midgley all see little reason for optimism in 2026. Moretti expects "chaotic" politics ahead of the midterm elections. Gupta predicts worsening polarization and economic strain on affordability. Midgley warns that profound damage to government machinery and international relations will take years to repair.