New law shapes battle for House control in midterms

WASHINGTON — Debate over United States President Donald Trump's sweeping budget-and-policy package is over on Capitol Hill. Now the argument goes national.

From the Central Valley of California to Midwestern battlegrounds and suburban districts of the northeast, the new law is already shaping the 2026 midterm battle for control of the House of Representatives. The outcome will set the tone for Trump's final two years in the Oval Office.

Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to break the GOP's chokehold on Washington and reestablish a power center to counter Trump. There is added pressure to flip the House given that midterm Senate contests are concentrated in Republican-leaning states — making it harder for Democrats to reclaim that chamber.

As Republicans see it, they have now delivered broad tax cuts, an unprecedented investment in immigration enforcement and new restraints on social safety net programs. Democrats see a law that rolls back health insurance access and raises costs for the middle class while cutting taxes mostly for the rich, curtailing green energy initiatives and restricting some workers' organizing rights.

"It represents the broken promise they made to the American people," said Representative Suzan DelBene, a Washington Democrat. "We're going to continue to hold Republicans accountable for this vote."

Whether voters see it that way will be determined on a district-by-district level, but the battle will be more intense in some places than others. Among the 435 House districts, only 69 contests were decided by less than 10 percentage points in the 2024 general election.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has so far identified 26 Democrat-held seats it must defend vigorously, along with 35 GOP-held seats it believes could be ripe to flip. Republicans' campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has so far listed 18 GOP incumbents as priorities, plus two districts opened by retirements.

There are a historically low number of so-called crossover districts. Only 13 Democrats represent districts Trump carried last year, while just three Republicans serve districts Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried.

Both committees are busy recruiting challengers and open-seat candidates, and with more retirements probable, the competitive map will evolve. Still, there are clusters of districts guaranteed to influence the national result.

Crucial districts

California, despite clearly leaning toward Democrats statewide, has at least nine House districts expected to be up for grabs: three in the Central Valley and six in southern California. Six are held by Democrats, three by the GOP.

Pennsylvania features four districts that have been among the closest national House races for several consecutive cycles.

Iowa and Wisconsin, meanwhile, feature four contiguous GOP-held districts in farm-heavy regions where voters could be swayed by the fallout from Trump's tariffs.

Beyond bumper-sticker labels — Trump's preferred "Big Beautiful Bill" versus Democrats' "Big Ugly Bill" retort — the 900-page law is, in fact, an array of policies with varying effects.

Democrats hammer Medicaid and food assistance cuts, some timed to take full effect only after next year's midterms, along with Republicans' refusal to extend tax credits to some people who obtained health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 11.8 million more people would become uninsured by 2034 if the bill became law; 3 million more would not qualify for food stamps.

"Folks will die here in Louisiana and in other parts of the country," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned last week during a town hall in Louisiana.

Republicans highlight the law's tightened work requirements for Medicaid enrollees. They argue it is a popular provision that will strengthen the program.

Agencies Via Xinhua