New York City expecting a drop in foreign tourists

New York City cut its forecast for the number of international tourists by 17 percent this year as travel experts say many are expressing concerns over traveling to the US amid strengthened border policies, heightened 'America First' rhetoric and geopolitics.

New York City Tourism and Conventions, the city's tourism agency, lowered the number of foreign visitors it expects this year to around 12.1 million from an estimated 14.6 million projected in December. Altogether, there will be 64.1 million tourists, both domestic and foreign, a drop of 3.5 million from the prior estimate.

It's not just New York seeing tourists change their minds.

"My husband and I said 'no, we do not want to go anymore,'" Karen Hyf from Toronto, Canada, told CTV News after canceling their vacation to Florida over trade frictions between the two countries. Hyf and her husband have been vacationing in the Sunshine State of Florida for decades.

Last year, Canada ranked as the biggest source of foreign visitors to the US, attracting over 20.4 million visits, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 jobs in the US. Tourism in New York City is heavily reliant on Canadians.

But after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on its North American neighbor, there was a drop of 35 percent in the number of Canadians driving across the border in April to the US when compared with the year before. A 20 percent decrease in air travel also occurred last month.

Six in 10 Canadian adults surveyed by Longwoods International said they would likely stay away from the US this year due to the current administration. And more than a third have canceled planned vacations this year over political tensions with the US, Forbes reports. At least 40 percent will travel domestically instead.

The challenges occurring in the US travel industry come after the dire impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. That era led to a significant drop in flights and fewer stays at hotels.

Additionally, several countries in Europe and Asia have updated their country's travel advisories or issued guidance to citizens traveling to the US. Many tourists in the UK have expressed concern over visiting the US.

Tourism Economics, an industry monitoring group, also revised its travel forecasts for all visitors to the US in February from a predicted growth of 9 percent this year to a downward trend of 5.1 percent. If this is followed by a decline in demand for hotels by 0.8 percent, it could cause an $18 billion drop in spending in 2025, it said.

Negative sentiment

Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, believes that some of the negative sentiment among international travelers was because of "geopolitical friction", he told The New York Times.

The US Travel Association also estimates that inbound international visitor numbers will not reach 2019 levels until the last quarter of 2025 and spending by international visitors will not pick back up to pre-pandemic levels until 2026.

It describes international travelers as "essential to the US economy, spending more, staying longer and supporting jobs and businesses in every corner of the country".

In New York City, international visitors spent over $26 billion, and another $25 billion was spent by all other visitors in 2024. Overall spending by tourists is estimated to drop by $4 billion this year.

Visits to the United States by Chinese and international tourists were down at the beginning of this year compared with 2024.

Globally, Chinese tourists collectively spent $196.5 billion in 2023 on international travel, a report by the UN Tourism found.

US Travel Association Executive Vice-President Tori Emerson Barnes told China Daily that before the pandemic, China was one of the "fastest growing markets to the US" with Chinese tourists spending more on average than visitors from other countries.

On average, Chinese tourists traveling independently to the US and not as part of a group tour, spent around $10,445 per trip in 2023, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, the agency that monitors tourism within the US Department of Commerce.

"Yet, international visitation remains well below 2019 levels and continues to decline," the US Travel Association said. "In 2024, the US welcomed 72.4 million international visitors, 7 million fewer than in 2019."

Most US airlines have also signaled that they expect a sluggish year ahead. Delta, American Airlines and Southwest cut their 2025 financial forecasts as the outlook looks uncertain.

But in a bright spot, two US airlines will expand flights to Beijing and Shanghai this year after China changed its travel policy to allow foreign tourists to visit the country visa-free for up to 10 days.

China updated its visa-free transit policy in December to allow tourists from 54 countries, including the US, to travel for up to 240 hours to 24 Chinese provinces.

Annabelle Aston, director of International Communications at United Airlines, told China Daily that United Airlines launched "the new flight between Los Angeles and Beijing on May 1. It will operate three times weekly on a Boeing 787-9 aircraft."