Nobel economist: A multilateral trade system may work without US

Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence said that an updated version of the multilateral trade system may take shape and function even without the support from the United States, as many other major economies are now "powerful and committed to having a workable multilateral structure".

The US has shown an anti-multilateral posture under its current administration, marked by its withdrawal from the World Health Organization, Spence said via video at the 2025 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum over the weekend, organized by Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance.

With that, structural changes may unfold in the international trade system, he said. While there could be different scenarios ahead, the most likely one is that Europe, China and other major emerging economies will sponsor a process that results in a reasonably functional, practical and workable multilateral system.

That could happen even in the absence of the US' support, though the process could be messy, Spence said. Such a scenario would not have worked 25 or 30 years ago, but is likely now as emerging economies have expanded their share in the global economy.