Expert says Trump return raises hopes for negotiations

Russia may seize the opportunity presented by US President-elect Donald Trump's return to initiate dialogue with Ukraine and the West in 2025, while Ukraine will also adopt a more strategic approach to seek a better position in negotiations, said a Chinese expert.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has surpassed 1,000 days, revealing both changes and constants in the goals of each side, according to Chen Yu, deputy director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

On the one hand, Moscow's current objective is to achieve more results on the battlefield before Trump takes office, thereby accumulating leverage for future negotiations. It is difficult for Russia to demand the complete demilitarization of Ukraine or a total change in its leadership again. However, Chen said that Russia would still insist that Ukraine does not join NATO and seeks a degree of neutrality, and that Russia controls most of the territories in Eastern Ukraine.

On the other hand, Ukraine's long-term goal has been to defeat Russia and compel a full withdrawal of its forces. Chen noted that in the past year, as the battlefield situation has deteriorated and with Trump's resurgence, Ukraine's stance has also evolved.

"Although Ukraine will not legally abandon its territories, it is increasingly open to discussing a cease-fire in some form and has begun to mention using diplomatic means to reclaim territories in the future, marking a clear shift from its previous position," said Chen. At the same time, Ukraine will continue to pursue NATO membership. On this issue, the objectives of both Russia and Ukraine remain sharply opposed, Chen noted.

Diplomatic challenge

The expert stated that the situation in Ukraine is currently not optimistic, as the battlefield is becoming increasingly difficult, and there are significant diplomatic challenges posed by Trump's influence. Domestic public opinion is also shifting.

Chen indicated that the Ukrainian leadership is becoming more aware that negotiation might be a necessary trend. Rather than being forced into negotiations under pressure, it may be more strategic to proactively shape the discussions. Recent statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, including attacks on Russia's border region of Kursk, are actually aimed at supporting this approach.

"If negotiations begin in 2025, we can expect that Ukraine will not legally abandon its territories but may be willing to discuss a cease-fire based on the current status of controlled areas under certain conditions, while continuing to assert claims over occupied territories," Chen said.

Chen also mentioned that Ukraine's use of Western long-range weapons to strike Russian military command centers and munitions depots may negatively affect Russia's operations, but it is unlikely to alter the overall battlefield situation.

From one perspective, the current unfavorable battlefield situation for Ukraine is primarily due to a severe shortage of personnel, which long-range weapons cannot address. From another perspective, the high cost of weapons like the US ATACMS and the UK Storm Shadow, along with limited Western stockpiles, complicates the sustainability of large-scale, long-term consumption of weapons, Chen noted.

As Russia restructured its Defense Ministry by appointing economists as ministers, Chen pointed out that Russia has made substantial investments in defense and related industries driven by military needs since the onset of the conflict, leading to unexpected economic growth. Despite this, the Russian economy has also faced overheating, high inflation, and labor shortages.

Particularly since the second quarter of 2024, economic growth has gradually slowed, prompting continuous interest rate hikes to curb inflation, resulting in a significant recent depreciation of the rouble. The impact of military actions on Russia's economy and society is growing, making it increasingly difficult to balance them with normal economic operations.