World's population to peak in mid-2080s

UNITED NATIONS — The United Nations released a report on Thursday, also the UN's World Population Day, projecting that the global population will peak this century.

According to a summary of World Population Prospects 2024, it is expected that the world's population will peak in the mid-2080s, growing over the next 60 years from 8.2 billion people this year to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then will return to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

The size of the world's population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 percent lower — or 700 million fewer — than anticipated a decade ago.

"The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years," Li Junhua, under-secretary-general for UN Economic and Social Affairs, said. "In some countries, the birthrate is now even lower than previously anticipated and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.

"The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual."

The earlier population peak is due to several factors, including lower levels of fertility in some of the world's largest countries. Globally, women are having one child fewer on average than they did around 1990, according to the report.

In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 — the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration — and nearly a fifth of all countries and areas now have "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.

Xinhua