India-US ties strained amid killing plot case

NEW DELHI — Ties between India and the United States had never looked better than they did in June, when US President Joe Biden honored Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a pomp-filled state visit. The relationship was among the most consequential in the world and "more dynamic than at any time in history", Biden declared then.

The relationship could now face its biggest test in recent years, after US prosecutors last week accused an Indian official of directing a plot to assassinate a prominent Sikh leader living in New York.

As the case unfolds in a New York court, rather than behind closed doors, the two governments may struggle to control the narrative and the fallout, even though it was unlikely to cause more serious long-term damage, experts said.

"They are going to try people (in court). That will pose problems. …Quite obviously, things are not going to be the same," said G. Parthasarathy, a retired Indian diplomat.

But more damningly, it is the second such allegation in months.

When Canada in June accused India of killing Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar on its soil, New Delhi dismissed the allegations as "absurd". Relations plunged and diplomats were expelled.

According to an unsealed indictment made public on Wednesday, US officials became aware in the spring of a plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US citizen who advocates for the creation of a sovereign Sikh state. India considers him a terrorist.

The plot, which was foiled by US officials who set up a sting, emerged just days after the killing of Nijjar, and was meant to precede a string of other politically motivated killings in the US and Canada, according to the indictment.

Under the indictment, Nikhil Gupta, 52, an Indian national, faces charges including murder for hire. The Indian official was not charged or identified by name in the court filing, which described him as a "senior field officer" with responsibilities in security management and intelligence.

The goal was to kill at least four people in the two countries by June 29, and then more after that, prosecutors alleged on Wednesday.

"The US allegations certainly bolster Canada's case from the vantage point that the incident can no longer be viewed as a one-off," said Derek Grossman, an analyst at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research institution.

India's reaction to the two cases has differed sharply. With Canada, it exchanged harsh words as it denied claims that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made publicly after returning to Ottawa, with both sides expelling diplomats.

But with Washington, its superpower ally and largest trading partner, New Delhi's response has been more cooperative.

India's Foreign Ministry said it had set up a high-level committee to investigate the US accusations, adding that the alleged link to an Indian official was "a matter of concern "and "against government policy".

"India's response to Canada was anger, denial, and defiance. Its response to the US was mild and subdued," said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, a think tank.

For Modi, who reveled in center stage attention hosting G20 leaders in September, the allegations threaten to puncture efforts to burnish the Indian leader's image abroad, said Hartosh Singh Bal, executive editor of The Caravan magazine.

"What India stands accused of is rogue behavior, and it will leave allies unwilling to trust a leadership that is willing to act so."

While Washington has embraced India as an ally in Asia, accusations of murder plots threaten to throw the relationship off balance.

"US officials must now grapple with the possibility that one of its most important strategic partners attempted an extrajudicial operation on US soil," Kugelman said. "It's an unsettling realization, and it will linger."

Analysts said the two countries will have to navigate difficult diplomatic terrain in the coming months.

Clues as to where things stand, and what impact this has made on India-US ties, could come as soon as January, as India has invited Biden to be the chief guest at its Republic Day parade.

Agencies Via Xinhua