Chinese exporters need to prepare for bigger test

China's exports to the US plummeted 24 percent year-on-year from January to May, while Mexico's exports to the United States surged 5 percent, according to data of the US Department of Commerce. As of the end of May, China accounted for 13 percent of the US' imports, compared with the 15 percent of Mexico.

It is evident that US-China trade has passed its peak. The shift is being driven by a combination of economic cycles, trade rules and geopolitical factors.

The decline of China's exports to the US is consistent with the economic cycle of developed countries. Data show that China's exports to European countries have declined to varying degrees this year as well, and the export curves of China to the US and the European Union countries have moved almost simultaneously, partly because of the impacts of interest rate hikes on the economic growth of developed countries.

Another major factor is the cooling down of the consumption of electronic products. The implications for Asia as a whole are particularly clear. The overall export volume of Asian economies to the US have shown a downward trend as a whole.

Global trade has languished for months as consumers in developed countries have stopped spending heavily on electronics, other consumer goods and home improvements. Instead, they are choosing to spend more of their income on dining out, travel and other services.

Because of that, China's trade deficit with other Asian countries and regions in the electronics supply chains is currently at the lowest level over the past two decades. At the same time, an increasing number of Chinese exports are going to regions such as the Middle East and Latin America, including Mexico, reflecting the strengthening of China's economic ties with countries where Chinese manufacturers and investors can steer clear of the US' tariff barriers and export restrictions targeting China.

However, as the US government realizes these "loopholes" must be plugged to prevent China from taking advantage of other countries to shun its trade restrictions, it will increase the pressure on other countries to say no to Chinese enterprises and investments. That will make it more difficult for Chinese companies to approach the US market by taking detours.

The Joe Biden administration is determined to restructure the global industry and supply chains for political purposes, rather than the cost-performance of products and services. And it considers the extra price the US pays for its imports from "friendly" countries is worthwhile as long as the extra money does not end up in Chinese pockets. It is peddling that notion to other developed countries as well.

That's the challenge the Chinese export enterprises must prepare for, as now might prove to be the best time for them in the foreseeable future.