Millions to lose Medicaid health coverage in US

Approximately 15 million people in the United States will lose Medicaid health coverage after the expiration of a pandemic-era rule, according to the federal government's estimate.

The COVID-19 public health emergency and Medicaid's continuous enrollment provision ended on March 31.

Before the pandemic, people would lose their Medicaid coverage if they started making too much money to qualify for the program, or if they moved out of state or gained healthcare coverage through jobs.

When the pandemic hit, the government suspended procedures that would exclude people from Medicaid, a healthcare insurance program for low-income people that started in 1965. As a result, Medicaid enrollment grew by 5 million between 2020 and 2022.

With the program having expired, some states will restart eligibility checks on every person currently on Medicaid and remove people who are disqualified.

Using survey data and 2021 enrollment information, the Office of Health Policy at the Department of Health and Human Services, or HHS, projected that 17.4 percent of Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program, enrollees will be removed from the federal program.

The analysis said that about 9.5 percent of Medicaid enrollees, or 8.2 million individuals, will lose Medicaid due to loss of eligibility. An additional 7.9 percent — 6 to 6.8 million individuals — will lose Medicaid coverage despite being eligible due to how Medicaid is being administrated.

Of the 15 million individuals, children and young adults will be affected disproportionately, with 5.3 million children and 4.7 million adults ages 18-34 predicted to lose coverage.

Nearly one-third or 4.6 million individuals who are expected to lose coverage are Latino, and some 2.2 million are black, the analysis found.

Even a small gap in coverage can be "devastating", said Jennifer Tolbert, the associate director for the program on Medicaid and the uninsured at KFF, a nonprofit research organization formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Some may not be able to get access to their monthly medications, she said, while others may not get access to treatment for their chronic physical or mental health conditions.

Agencies contributed to this story.