Monkeypox retreating but worries remain, experts say

PARIS — The global monkeypox outbreak has been receding for months, but experts warn against prematurely declaring victory because a resurgence remains possible and the virus still circulates in African countries where it has long been endemic.

Since monkeypox suddenly started spreading across the world in May, more than 73,000 cases and 29 deaths have been recorded in more than 100 countries, the World Health Organization said last week.

But since peaking in July, infection numbers have consistently fallen, particularly in Europe and North America, the hardest-hit areas in the early stages of the global outbreak. However, case numbers are still increasing in some areas, including South America.

"We are heading toward the end, but we are not there yet," Jean-Claude Manuguerra, head of the environment and infectious risks unit at the Pasteur Institute in France, told Agence France-Presse.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said this month that "a declining outbreak can be the most dangerous outbreak, because it can tempt us to think that the crisis is over, and to let down our guard".

Several experts said the main reason cases had fallen was a change in behavior by at-risk communities, though vaccination has also played a role.

Campaigns by organizations in those communities have helped raise awareness, Manuguerra said, adding that such groups were "closer to the ground and perhaps more listened to than the authorities".

Carlos Maluquer de Motes, a virologist at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, said vaccinating against monkeypox "has helped, but the number of available doses remains low".

Vaccines recommended

However, the vaccines, which were originally developed to fight smallpox, are still recommended to protect against monkeypox.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said last week that robust data on the effectiveness of the vaccines was "still lacking".

However, a preliminary analysis by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month found that unvaccinated people were 14 times more at risk of contracting monkeypox.

Warning that "significant uncertainties remain", the ECDC laid out four possible scenarios for how the outbreak could evolve.

The worst-case scenario is that monkeypox has a resurgence worldwide as the behavior of at-risk groups returns to normal.

A likely scenario is that the virus stays at a relatively low level, with sporadic outbreaks "almost exclusively" among at-risk communities, the ECDC said.

Or monkeypox could wane or even be eliminated completely.

Agencies Via Xinhua