Texas drought seen slashing cotton harvest in US

Texas produces about a third of the United States' cotton and 4 percent of the global total, with annual revenue of up to $5 billion. However, a severe drought is likely to halve the usual harvest and result in at least a $2 billion loss for the state's cotton farmers.

The Texas Farm Bureau estimated that the cotton area harvested is forecast at 2.2 million acres (890,300 hectares) for 2022, down by 3.4 million acres from 2021. The southern state is expected to harvest 2.9 million bales of cotton, compared with 7.7 million last year.

Nationwide, the US Department of Agriculture, or USDA, estimated that, based on conditions as of Aug 1, cotton production in 2022 is forecast at 12.6 million 480-pound bales, down 28 percent from 2021. That means almost all the loss in US cotton production will come from Texas.

The drought has forced Texas cotton farmers to abandon 2 out of every 3 acres, a historical high, according to USDA estimates.

"This was just so extreme this year the dry; some of the cotton had a bit of moisture at planting, and nothing until now," Ryan Collett, manager of Tiles Farm, told media outlet Spectrum News. "The best thing we can do is get it out of the field, take our money and run. Get ready for next year."

Collett said the farm, north of Austin, has almost 3,000 acres and will be lucky to harvest at least some cotton.

"Reduced production from this year's cotton crop will not only impact farmers who are already facing a challenging time due to drought and high input costs but will also have an impact on the local economies that rely on cotton," Brant Wilbourn, Texas Farm Bureau associate director of Commodity and Regulatory Activities, said in a statement.

"As less cotton is produced, downstream users－such as gins, warehouses and shippers－will oversee less cotton. That will lead to a loss of economic activity," Wilbourn said.

As farmers' revenues drop, the local service industry and retail sector also will suffer.

Other sectors downstream of the cotton industry will lose money. The International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness has estimated that ginning companies that turn cotton into lint will lose $230 million, The Texas Tribune reported.

The US has been the world's largest cotton exporter for many years, but the drought will greatly reduce such exports. The USDA estimates that the country will export 2 million fewer bales of cotton between 2022 and 2023.

China has been the top destination for US cotton exports in the past two years and is on track to remain so in 2022. According to USDA data, as of mid-August, the US had exported 1.8 million bales of cotton to China.