Shared focus on Middle East

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin share a focus on energy and weapons sales in their Middle East policies, experts say in the wake of the US president's trip to the region and ahead of a visit to Iran by the Russian leader.

Jack Midgley, a former adviser to the commander of the International Security Assistance Force and an adjunct associate professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University, said the Middle East is a huge market for the US and Russia for weapons and both nations have a strategic interest in the region's oil production.

"What the United States is trying to do is to ensure that Saudi Arabia increases oil supplies during a time when inflation is running high in the United States, and ensure that the Saudis continue to buy US weapons, for which they are the largest buyer in the world," Midgley told China Daily.

"Putin is going to the region to make sure that the oil relationship between Iran and Russia remains sound and explore the possibility that Iranian security assistance of some kind will continue to flow to Russia."

During a four-day trip that started on Wednesday, Biden visited Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia. The Russian president is scheduled to visit Iran on Tuesday.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said: "Each of the parties involved is… seeking a transactional interest, and much of that has to do with near-term oil prices."

Biden wants Saudi Arabia to open the oil spigots to push down global oil prices, thereby putting a lid on the raging inflation that is haunting his administration and Democrats in Congress, Gupta told China Daily.

The US and Saudi Arabia have maintained an alliance, though their ties cooled because of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. According to the BBC, the two countries announced during Biden's visit a package of agreements, including removing peacekeepers from a strategic island off the Saudi and Egyptian coasts and cooperation on mobile technology. However, there were no reports of the US receiving a commitment from Saudi Arabia on an oil production increase.

"So the (Biden) trip, at least with respect to oil, has been counterproductive," said Midgley.

Putin will start his trip to Iran with a trilateral meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russia and Iran have both been hit by sanctions and isolated by Western countries.

Midgley said there are several ways to read possible success into Putin's trip: a diplomatic win of bringing Iran and Russia closer, as well as others that support Russian actions in Ukraine; Putin may be able to shore up the energy and security relationships between Iran and Russia; and he may be signaling to the US that he has a defense interest in creating or allowing Iranian nuclear weapons and that it would complicate US policy in the region if Russian and Iranian security interests are linked.

Higher oil prices

Iran still has a great interest in getting across the line with a nuclear deal with the West and thereby receiving handsome economic dividends, Gupta said. "But after being hammered by Western sanctions for decades and adjusting to it, Teheran knows that it can wait for a deal for a couple of months or even a year or longer and thereby reciprocate their goodwill to Moscow for more or less having Teheran's back.

"In the meantime, witness the Americans and Europeans suffering from higher oil prices, which is a result of the embargoes that they have unilaterally forced on Iranian oil in the first place."

Midgley said the trips by the US and Russian leaders are raising the temperature in the Middle East.

"The Middle East is becoming hotter with respect to the security challenges that face all the great powers," he said, adding that the US interests in the region are stability and access to oil, and the Russians want to make sure that they retain influence over world oil prices.

"I think the US has an opportunity to lower these tensions, but opportunities were not being taken (during the Biden visit). That's just not what the president is doing in the region. If anything, he's accentuating … the tensions that already exist," Midgley said.

On the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-Russia tensions, Midgley said that the cost of the conflict has been increasing.

"So far, the United States has missed the opportunity to pursue diplomatic approaches to reduce the level of tension to try to contain the conflict," he said. It has instead "mainly provided weapons and technical assistance to Ukraine".

"It remains to be seen whether that will work, but the effect has been to increase the level of polarization and the potential for conflict in the world," Midgley said.