Japan polls watched for military shift

Elections for Japan's upper chamber of parliament on Sunday are drawing more attention than usual because the outcome could aid any plans Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may have to change the country's pacifist Constitution.

"Elections to the Japanese legislature's upper chamber, also known as the House of Councilors, do not always draw such attention because, for one thing, it doesn't select Japan's prime minister and for another, it doesn't determine the country's treaties and budgets," said Wang Qi, a researcher of East Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.

"But it is different this year, because the result of the election could have profound consequences for Japan's defense and security strategies. The outcome might give a chance for Kishida to revise Japan's war-renouncing Constitution and that will definitely increase tensions and uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region."

To amend the constitution, the ruling coalition needs to win at least 82 seats in the chamber to maintain a two-thirds majority with the support of two minor parties, Nippon Ishin and the Democratic Party for the People. Both the minor parties support a revision of the charter.

Given that Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, and its junior partner Komeito, together with the two minor parties, hold a two-thirds majority in the lower house of the legislature, the only obstacle to amending the Constitution is the need for majority support in a referendum.

"Despite all the focus on the election, I don't know if Kishida will put his priority on constitutional revision," said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of comparative politics at the University of Tokyo.

"Even if he did, it would be more likely as a symbolic gesture. I think his priority will be to secure a long-term administration and cement his new capitalism, which many say he has failed to explain clearly."

Analysts and political observers are still trying to gain a clearer picture of the direction that Kishida wants to take the country. He had long been regarded as a dovish figure on security issues, occupying a middle ground between rival factions of the LDP.

Some analysts are questioning the degree to which Kishida favors constitutional reform and whether he may be acting under pressure from former prime minister Shinzo Abe and his allies.

Either way, Kishida is very likely to be the one who decides on Japan's future security posture.

Abe influence

Abe, who resigned due to ill health in 2020, heads the largest faction within the LDP, with about 90 lawmakers, giving him a strong voice in choosing the LDP's president. In contrast, Kishida's faction, with 43 members, is the fourth largest within the party.

If Kishida manages to expand the margin of control that the LDP and Komeito have in the upper house, he would rule for three more years before facing another election in 2025. To do so, he would also need to retain the LDP leadership in a party election next year.

A poll published on Monday by Nikkei Daily showed that the LDP is projected to win about 60 seats on its own in the upper chamber, up from the 55 seats it currently holds.

"The opposing parties have failed to distinguish themselves from others this year and they lack strong leaders to attract voters. That's why the LDP and Komeito will easily keep their majority in the upper chamber," said Masanari Koike, a former member of Japan's House of Representatives, the lower house. Koike added that the right-wing Nippon Ishin party could also win more seats.

Members of the upper house are elected for a six-year term and elections are held every three years, with half of the total 248 seats up for grabs.

More than 530 candidates from more than 15 parties will compete for 124 seats. Among them, 75 will be decided based on electoral districts and the remaining seats will be filled by people elected through proportional representation across Japan.

Koike said economic issues and structural reform should top Kishida's agenda during his term.

"Japan now faces serious economic challenges, caused by a decrease in population and demand, also a lack of structural reforms which hinder rising new industries," Koike said.

Abe and his successors as prime minister have had few options other than to rely on stimulus to expand the economy, Koike said.

"But it is now causing a historic depreciation of the yen. Combined with increased imports and energy prices, it is hurting people in their daily living. If they don't fix it, there seems no optimistic end in sight."