French parliament elections seen as test for Macron

PARIS－France was scheduled to vote on Sunday in parliamentary elections, with allies of President Emmanuel Macron seeking to retain a majority in the face of an increasingly competitive challenge from a new left-wing coalition.

Elections for the 577 seats in the lower house National Assembly are a two-round process. The shape of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round, a week later on June 19.

The ballots will provide a crucial coda to April's presidential election, when Macron won reelection and pledged a transformative new era after a first term dominated by protests, the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Stepping into the fray on Thursday, Macron acknowledged the stakes were high, warning France against choosing "extremes" which would add "crisis to crisis".

"If the presidential election is crucial, the legislative election is decisive," he said on a visit to the rural Tarn region, calling for a "strong and clear majority".

If the president's centrist alliance Ensemble (Together) retains an overall majority, he will be able to carry on governing as before.

Falling short could prompt a coalition with right-wing parties and an unwanted cabinet shuffle only weeks after the government was revamped.

A win by the left-wing alliance－seen as unlikely by analysts but not impossible－would be a disaster for Macron.

It would raise the specter of a clunky "cohabitation"－where the prime minister and president hail from different factions－of the kind that has paralyzed French politics in the past.

'Lowered ambitions'

While Macron and his European Union allies breathed a heavy sigh of relief after his presidential victory over far-right leader Marine Le Pen, the last weeks have brought no sense of honeymoon.

Energy and food prices are soaring in France as elsewhere in Europe, the treatment of English fans at the Champions League final in Paris damaged France's image abroad, and Macron has been accused by Ukraine of being too accommodating to Russia.

Of the 577 deputies in the National Assembly, eight represent France's overseas territories and 11 account for French nationals living abroad.

Macron's party and his allies currently hold an absolute majority of 345 seats.

The latest opinion poll by Ipsos projected that Macron's alliance would win 275 to 315 seats. This means it is by no means assured of an absolute majority, for which 289 seats are needed.

"Projecting seats is a perilous exercise at this stage," said Brice Teinturier, managing director of Ipsos France.

"An absolute majority (for Together) is not assured, but the presidential majority does have a certain margin" that will play to its advantage in the second round.

Agencies Via Xinhua