Challenges lie ahead for Macron in new term

France's President Emmanuel Macron has been elected to five more years as the country's top leader, but major challenges lie ahead for him, including uniting a divided nation and facing the immediate task of winning parliamentary elections in June.

Waya Quiviger, professor of the practice of global governance and development at the IE School of Global and Public Affairs, said far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon will try to garner enough support at the legislative elections to position himself as a potential prime minister.

But she believes Macron "has a good chance of obtaining a parliamentary majority in June", while noting with caution that "nothing is guaranteed".

"Pundits see a Macron majority as most probable, especially since, historically, recently elected presidents have tended to earn a majority in parliamentary elections, a possible winner-takes-all effect of elections," Quiviger said.

"This said, we shouldn't forget the high level of abstention, 28 percent in the second round, of which many were left-wing Melenchon voters who decided to stay home. Should they come out in droves to vote for Melenchon in June, this could certainly represent a threat for Macron's En Marche party."

Athanassios Gouglas, a political scientist and lecturer of Politics and Public Policy at the University of Exeter, said: "Macron has battled his way through to becoming the default reliable option for governing France. He is clearly the big winner of the presidential election and thus far has the highest chance of winning the legislative elections in June, too. Electorally, he has been so successful as to cause a major realignment to the French party system. He dominates French politics at the moment and also European politics and has a major role to play in global governance."

Gouglas added the biggest immediate risk for Macron is losing the legislative election and being forced to a cohabitation. In his second term, the centrist leader is facing a number of hurdles, such as addressing high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, which Quiviger said led so many voters to choose the far-right's Marine Le Pen over him.

He will still have to deal with pension reform and extending the retirement age to 65, fighting climate change, and handling the Ukraine crisis, while at the same time focusing on domestic issues, such as inflation and high energy prices.

Gouglas expects Macron to be more deliberative in his second term.

"We should expect a less imperious governing style from him and more great debates, consultations and attempts to connect with the ordinary people," Gouglas said. "However, unless he is forced to a cohabitation after the June 2022 legislative elections, the substance of his centrist liberal, pro-European politics is not going to change fundamentally."

In his victory speech, Macron vowed to be the "president for all "and that his second term will not be a continuation of his first.

"He will have to listen to the opposition parties' concerns and, most of all, he will have to listen to the people who did not vote for him and address their real grievances," Quiviger said, adding that if Macron does not change his governing style, it will probably result in more protests like the Gillet Jaunes protests in 2018.

Analysts say uniting a divided France will be one of the biggest challenges in Macron's second term.

"Many will accuse him of being the default option, as opposed to a president elected for his ideas and platform. This means that from the onset, he will face a weak mandate. His political detractors will certainly use this lack of legitimacy against him in the upcoming parliamentary elections," Quiviger said.

Gouglas argued that Macron will need to "find a way to speak to the people of disaffected France and show them that he is governing for them too."

"However－and here is the paradox－much of the work might be done by the opposition parties. So far, the growth of Macron's party, the La Republique En Marche, has fed the wings of the party system in France, a phenomenon political scientists refer to as center-party driven polarization," he said.

"However, now that the party realignment is cemented and as the wings try to affect policy via entering government, it is very likely that they will start moving a bit closer to the center, thus creating tendencies for centripetal party competition."

Macron's victory was welcomed by European leaders. Although Le Pen no longer talked about leaving the bloc, academics said she would fundamentally change France's role within the EU.

"Le Pen's defeat was not only a victory for Macron but a clear win for the EU and NATO as well. A collective sigh of relief could be heard throughout the halls of Brussels and other European capitals," Quiviger said. "A Macron win means that he will continue to honor EU law and France's vital role as a pillar of the EU, and pursue his agenda on EU sovereignty in fields like technology, defense, and climate change."

Gouglas also said that Macron is the new Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor, meaning that "he is the new de facto leader of the EU."

"Overall, we should expect more concrete movement toward the goal of an EU 'strategic autonomy'. Brussels would toast to that. By contrast, it sees a Le Pen presidency as a stab at the heart of Europe," he said.