Tensions may cause spillover effects in Middle East

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia could fuel instability in the Middle East in the long run, experts said, as the conflict-ridden region has already been feeling the pressure of inflation before the European tensions.

Yesar Al-Maleki, an energy expert and adviser at think tank Iraq Energy Institute, told China Daily that rising commodity prices and inflation were already causing some pressure on food prices in the Middle East before the Ukraine crisis.

"The current tensions are adding a risk premium to prices. This may eventually be reflected on retail prices, household spending and outright lead to a possible increase in poverty," Al-Maleki said.

Moamen Gouda, associate professor of Middle East economics at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in South Korea, said though the European tensions may create opportunities for the Middle East, it would also be "creating a lot of problems".

He cited Lebanon as it imports more than 50 percent of its wheat from Ukraine. Lebanese Economy Minister Amin Salam said his country has one month's worth of wheat reserves and was seeking import agreements from various countries amid supply concerns in the market owing to the Ukraine crisis, Reuters reported.

"When we have a case of inflation, when we have a case of a commodity shock, we have a rise in instability, in problems, in crime, in terrorism and so on," Gouda said.

He also noted that countries that depend on oil suffer major problems because "oil prices are always varying across time".

Oil prices hovered to almost $100 a barrel on Feb 24. Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including allies led by Russia from OPEC+, were set to meet on Wednesday to decide whether to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day in April.

During a United Nations General Assembly plenary session to discuss the crisis along the eastern borders of Ukraine last week, Abdulaziz Alateek, Saudi Arabia's deputy permanent representative to the UN, said civilians do not have to "pay the price for military escalation" and urged all participants to work to resolve the crisis.

Mahjoob Zweiri, director of Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, said the statement by the Saudi representative of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries focused on respecting the lives of civilians and making sure that peaceful solutions should be a priority. The GCC countries comprise the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Other Middle Eastern countries had also called for restraint.

Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr wrote in a tweet that wars were never a solution to problems, but rather an increase in the number of problems and crises.

Al-Maleki said if restrictions were to cover Russia's oil trade, Middle Eastern countries may need to "fill the gap".

But he said OPEC, which is made up of 13 countries, is finding it harder to produce more oil as "they have almost maxed their oil production capacities".

"Years of lacking investment in the oil and gas sector since the 2014 to 2016 oil price plunge and during the pandemic mean they were not able to maintain some wellhead production or expand upstream activities," Al-Maleki said.

Liu Xuan and Xinhua contributed to this story.