Light on the diplomatic horizon

From the beginning of this year China-US relations continued on a downward spiral until a presidential summit took a step in what one expert said was "in the right direction" to guide the most substantial bilateral relationship in the world.

In a virtual meeting on Nov 16, Chinese President Xi Jinping told US President Joe Biden that China and the US should respect each other, coexist peacefully and work together for mutual gains.

Biden said that the US does not seek to change China's system or intend to have a conflict, and reassured Xi on Washington's longstanding one-China policy.

Relations are complicated following years of deterioration and compounded by the pandemic. For each step forward such as the virtual summit or shared concerns over climate change in the past month, the US has taken a step backward, most recently by announcing that it will not send a delegation of government officials to the Winter Olympics in Beijing and Biden's signing into law of the so-called "Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act".

But amid the acrimony, veteran China watchers in the US say the Xi-Biden video face-to-face meeting holds signs for gradual improvement, if not a breakthrough, in ties, which they said should emphasize collaboration rather than rivalry.

J. Stapleton Roy, US ambassador to China from 1991 to 1995, said he had hoped the transition to the Biden administration in January heralded a "steady hand" on the wheel of the ship of state that would halt the downward spiral.

However, that has not eventuated, as evidenced by the fact that weeks into the new administration, Biden's top diplomat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, endorsed the previous administration's claim that China engaged in genocide in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, an accusation China has branded the "biggest lie of the century".

In addition, hefty tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, and the tone of the first high-level meeting between the two countries in Anchorage, Alaska, was confrontational, with China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi saying the US "does not have the qualification to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength".

However, at the virtual annual gala of the US-China Policy Foundation, a Washington group dedicated to improving US-China relations, Roy said: "The news is not all bleak. The recent virtual summit between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a step in the right direction."

At the least, the meeting improved the tone of US official interactions with China, which had sharply deteriorated, and there were some positive accomplishments, including the two presidents agreeing to meet regularly to guide the relationship and to converse on strategic matters, while identifying climate change and other areas for collaboration.

This year, Blinken described the US-China relationship as "competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be and adversarial when it must be", a framing China has called a "thinly veiled attempt" to contain and suppress it. In the China-US relationship, competition should not be described as a zero-sum game, China's Ambassador to the US, Qin Gang, has said.

The US is emphasizing the competitive aspects of the relationship, while President Xi at the summit said the goal should be "peaceful coexistence", Roy said.

"The strategic goal, however, should be to have cooperation become the dominant factor in the bilateral relationship," Roy said at another webinar last month. That is "the best way" to ensure that US policy serves its own interests and those of regional countries, he said.

Chas W. Freeman, former US assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told China Daily that while he believes competition is compatible with peaceful coexistence, a rivalry that leaves room for collaboration in theory but not in practice is bound to be fruitless.

"I believe that the order of these three elements of the Sino-American relationship should be altered to put cooperation to mutual advantage first, competition in terms of self-improvement next and make antagonistic confrontation a last resort."

Collaboration, whether in addressing planet-wide problems such as climate change, the development of new technologies, or in mutually beneficial exchanges that are the basis for trade brings the maximum benefit to each side, he said.

Complementary goals

"The two countries appear to have recognized that while the tense atmosphere between them makes direct cooperation difficult if not impossible, they can pursue complementary goals in parallel, each in their own way."

Craig Allen, president of the US-China Business Council, told China Daily that the value of US exports to China will reach a record this year, perhaps increasing as much as 30 percent over 2020.

There have also been "positive signs" on the policy side, as there seems to be "very little appetite "within the administration to increase tariffs, though that has not been ruled out next year, and there have been fewer executive orders, such as the TikTok ban or the WeChat ban that were subsequently overturned by US courts.

"As we recently saw, when the two presidents met, they could be very hospitable and indeed friendly and warm with each other," Allen said, adding that beneath that bonhomie on the personal side, domestic politics could make it more difficult for regulators, diplomats, government officials and procurement officials to really reach out to find common ground.

Jon Taylor, chair of the department of political science and geography at the University of Texas-San Antonio, said recent scholarly research confirms that comprehensive diplomatic efforts between China and the US before 2017 were having a positive effect on a host of issues of mutual concern.

These ranged from stabilizing the global economy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, tackling climate change and improving public health and pandemic responses, and enhancing collaboration on security issues. But such a diplomatic approach was abandoned with the advent of the presidency of Donald Trump.

"If there is any impressive progress made so far by Biden, it's the fact that the two nations are actually talking to each other," Taylor told China Daily.

Since March, senior diplomats from Washington and Beijing have held meetings in Anchorage, Tianjin, Zurich and Rome.

Unlike the fiercely ideological and military-based competition between the US and the former Soviet Union that was often marked by proxy wars, China-US strategic competition is decidedly more technological and economic, Taylor said.

Coexistence, respect

"Managing the competition between the two countries and striving toward a relationship that recognizes the need for coexistence and respect should be a key focus for both countries."

Given that Republicans and Democrats in the US are relatively united in their hard-line approach toward China, it is going to be a long, difficult struggle to get on a diplomatic path toward moderating tensions, he said.

On Capitol Hill the only consensus politicians seem to have is countering what they deem a "strategic competitor". They had already produced more than 260 bills with negative content on China in the six months since the 117th Congress began its session on Jan 3.

Such congressional attitudes mean the hardening US approach with China will continue, said Robert Sutter, professor of practice of international affairs at the Elliott School of George Washington University.

On the other hand, there are "countercurrents", represented by US businesses, universities and other organizations closely engaged with China, and prominent China specialists, who have argued for "greater moderation" in dealing with China, he said.

Those people have cautioned that the threat of Chinese challenges seen by US policymakers is exaggerated, and that US policy should deal with the challenges with nuanced approaches featuring dialogue and reassurance, Sutter said.

Continuing problems

"It's against this background that the Biden government faces continuing problems in coming up with an effective strategy toward China that takes into account business and other pro-China interests in the United States and those interests among US allies and partners as well."

David M. Lampton, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said that to manage US-China relations safely, what is needed is not only deterrence but incentives to hold things together.

"Not moving ahead on reducing tariffs at the same time that everybody is fearful of inflation and slowing growth is just quite simply nuts," Lampton said.

"The United States and China not cooperating in management of the global pandemic is egregious, especially given our record of fruitful cooperation in past pandemics."

Looking to the coming year, the Biden administration could face mounting pressure to address domestic issues such as surging inflation, even as midterm elections approach, possibly reducing the attention devoted to China issues, but at the same time Biden would avoid appearing weak to critics, experts said.

At the US-China Policy Foundation gala on Dec 21, Rick Waters, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, continued to say that the US-China relationship is defined by "intense competition", and that the US will continue to invest at home to "outcompete" China, and that intense competition requires equally intense diplomacy.

A day before in Beijing, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi summed up China's position: Dialogue can be held, but it should be equal; collaboration is welcome, but it should be mutually beneficial; competition is fine, but it should be healthy.

"We are not afraid of confrontation, and will fight to the end," Wang said, while noting that both countries stand to gain from collaboration and lose from confrontation.

That is the most important lesson learned from the exchanges between China and the US for more than 50 years, and history will "surely" continue to prove that truth, Wang said.

"It is hoped that the US side will earnestly implement the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, fulfill its commitments to win trust, and work with China to explore the way of peaceful coexistence between the two major countries."