Japan's ruling coalition will cling to election majority, poll shows

TOKYO－Japan's Liberal Democratic Party will likely lose some seats in the Oct 31 lower house election, but the ruling coalition it forms with partner Komeito is expected to maintain a majority, said several newspapers on Thursday, citing their poll results.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aims to win a clear mandate to press ahead with his coronavirus response and steps to reinvigorate the pandemic-hit economy. But weak election results could turn him into another short-term premier.

Kishida took over from Yoshihide Suga as leader of the world's third-largest economy on Oct 4 after Suga's popularity sank as he struggled to contain a fifth wave of coronavirus infections.

A survey by the Asahi Shimbun daily showed 38 percent of those polled intended to vote for Kishida's LDP, down from 41 percent in the previous survey conducted earlier this month.

In the latest survey, 7 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Komeito, up from 5 percent in the previous poll. The percentage of those who intended to vote for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, was unchanged from the previous poll at 13 percent.

Other papers, including the Mainichi and the Yomiuri Shimbun, said the ruling bloc was likely to win a simple majority, or 233 seats or more, although the LDP is expected to suffer some setbacks.

The LDP clinched a strong victory in the previous lower house election in 2017 under Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving premier, who stepped down last year due to health issues.

Even some incumbent members of the Kishida cabinet such as Economy Minister Daishiro Yamagiwa are fighting very tough races against opposition candidates, reported web media AERA dot.

The LDP's own survey revealed that Yamagiwa was only slightly ahead of his CDP rival, and Reconstruction Minister Kosaburo Nishime was neck and neck with another CDP candidate in their respective districts.

No surprise

Political analyst Atsuo Ito said declines for the LDP should come as no surprise after its huge win in 2017, but a major loss of seats will be a destabilizing factor within the ruling party.

"I believe the threshold will be around 30 seats. If the LDP loses more than that, doubts could come forth within the LDP regarding whether they can fight the upper house election next year under Mr Kishida," Ito said.

"Having said that, they will probably be reluctant to change a premier within a year yet again. So, other measures such as a major cabinet reshuffle could take place instead."

Kishida said he aims to win a simple majority for the ruling coalition. The LDP and Komeito held nearly two-thirds of the seats in the lower house which was dissolved last week.

Agencies via Xinhua